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发表于 2018-7-14 17:07:23
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It will not be easy. Provincial party bosses and state-owned enterprises
hate to shut factories, particularly in those parts of the country, such as
Shanxi and Inner Mongolia in the north, where coal is a big employer. Cutting
demand for energy is even harder. Even if the amount of electricity used by
state industry falls, that used by private firms and households is bound to
increase. What is more, environmental regulations and laws laid down by the
centre are routinely flouted.
但是这不会是件简单的事。各省级政府以及各个国企领导不希望关闭工厂,特别是像山西和内蒙古这些以煤矿业提供工作岗位的北方省份。降低能源需求就更苦难了。即使国有产业的用电量下降了,民用和私营企业的用电量一定都会上升。另外,由中央政府制定有关环境的法律法规常常遭到各地政府的无视。
But cleaning up China’s act has, for the central government, become a
political necessity too. Environmental issues have been major public concerns
for over a decade, says Anthony Saich of Harvard University, which has conducted
polls. True, rural people fret most (and with good reason) about water
pollution. But those in the cities gripe about their toxic air. Both represent a
reproach to the government over its neglect of people’s lives and health.
但对于中央政府来说,变更中国的行为模式也开始有了政治必要性。哈佛大学的安东尼·塞挈进行了一项投票调查,称环境问题在过去十年中变成了公众关心的一大问题。事情确实是这样的,比如农村居民最担心的是水污染问题(这个担心也是非常合理的)。但那些居住在城市的人抱怨空气中的毒害成分。这两种人都表达了对政府忽略人民生命健康的斥责。
That is why national economic goals, political goals, public opinion and
international pressure all point towards trying to cut emissions, pollutants
included. In particular, says Zhang Zhongxiang of Tianjin University, now that
dealing with climate change is a pillar of China’s diplomacy, the government
must show it can keep its promises. It has some tools at its disposal. Across
the country, the environmental record of government officials has become a
crucial part of their evaluation by the Communist Party; and cadres will be held
accountable for their actions even after leaving their position. Several
provinces have already punished officials for environmental accidents and for
not enforcing environmental laws.
这也是为什么国家的经济目标、政治期望、民众意见以及国际压力都将矛头指向了减少某些污染物在内的排放量。就像天津大学的张忠祥所说的一样,现在气候变化问题成为中国外交的重点之一,政府必须要拿出遵守承诺的行动。中国有着其自身可用的方法处理环境问题。环境行政档案成为了共产党评定一个政府官员的重要依据,各级政府官员即使在离职后依然要对其在职时所作的决策负责。某些省份已经因为出现有关环境问题的事故或者没有依环境法行政等问题对一些官员进行了惩处。
●Fifty shades of grey 五十度灰
But there are obstacles to real change. The electricity grid and national
power market are ill-equipped to increase renewable generation by much.
Corruption in industrial procurement remains widespread, which does nothing to
promote long-term efficiency or reductions in emissions. Competing incentives
are also in play: earlier this year, the authorities forced a big Chinese
investment company to buy back shares it had sold in old-fashioned industrial
fields, for fear that it might depress share prices (which crashed anyway in a
more general stockmarket meltdown). The government will not trust market
mechanisms alone, says Yang Fuqiang of the Natural Resources Defense Council, an
activist group.
但想要真正做到改变,前面还有一些拦路虎。国家电网和国家能源市场对于新能源大量涌入没有足够的准备。行业采购中的腐败行为依然泛滥,这对于提高长期效率以及减少排放没有好处。竞争激励依然起作用:今年早些时候,一家大型中国投资公司在旧工业领域出售了许多股份,但有关部门因为担心抛售会使股份价格贬值(虽然其股价在股市暴跌情况下依然跌至低谷),于是强制要求其购回相应股份。维权团体自然资源保护委员会的杨富强称,政府不会把宝都压在市场机制上的。
Nor are leaders yet pushing for change on all fronts. For instance,
government efforts to cut emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide are
greater than for many other greenhouse gases. Scarce and polluted water, one of
China’s most severe environmental challenges, is almost entirely beyond the
scope of the current raft of reforms. And China refuses to publish its estimate
of the environmental toll of economic growth.
但政府也没有在每个方面都推进改革。例如政府对于减少二氧化碳和氮氧化物所采取行动明显大于其他温室气体。稀缺且日益受到污染的水资源是中国最严重的环境威胁之一,但却几乎没有没能在这一轮改革的方案之中看到相关措施。而且中国政府拒绝透露经济增长所带来的环境破坏预估值。
Sceptics scoff that China’s promises in Paris are irrelevant because
emissions will probably peak regardless, long before the promised 2030. Nor has
the government said how high that top might be. Yet the sceptics underestimate
the importance of an international agreement for China and beyond. Like other
countries, China has to date followed a pattern of “grow first, clean up later”.
Yet very quickly it has recognised the dangers and drawbacks of such a policy
and has been pouring money into clean energy and other innovations it hopes will
provide green growth. In that, it may prove a model for other fast-developing
countries. That might signal a small patch of blue sky.
持怀疑态度的人嘲弄称中国在巴黎气候大会上的承诺根本毫无意义,因为远在2030年前,全球温室气体排放量不论如何都会达到最大。尽管没有政府预计过这个最大的具体数值是多少,但这些人都低估了国际协议对于现在和以后的中国的重要性。和其他国家一样,中国曾经采用“先污染后治理”的模式。但是很快中国政府就意识到了其中的危害和缺点,并投入大量资金建设清洁能源和其他有助于绿色增长模式的研发。因此,中国或许能够成为其他高速发展国家的可模仿的例子。这可能标志着天空那一抹蔚蓝色出现。
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