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发表于 2018-6-8 23:08:40
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●Right after the Paris summit, however it ends, China is expected to make more promises in a new document, co-written by international experts, that presents a far-reaching programme of how China should clean up its act. It is based on models that account for both economic and political viability. On top of existing plans, such as launching a national emissions-trading scheme in 2017, the government may even outline proposals for a carbon tax, something that has eluded many prosperous countries in the West.
不管过程如何,各国在巴黎峰会上通过了一份由各国专家共同撰写的文件,其中要求中国在环境问题上给出更多的承诺,同时该文件中还有一个计划长远的项目用以指导中国该如何规范其行为。该文件是基于那些给出经济可行性和政治可行性的模型。在现存计划之外,如2017年开始运行的全国碳排放交易系统,中国政府甚至开始拟定征收碳排放税,而在许多发达的西方国家,这都是一件避而不谈的事。
●The big question is why China is now so serious about climate change. The answer is not that Communist leaders are newly converted econuts. Rather, they want to use environmental concerns to rally domestic support for difficult reforms that would sustain growth in the coming decades. Since a global slowdown in 2008 it has become clear that to continue growing, China must move its economy away from construction and energy-intensive industry towards services. At the same time, China faces an energy crunch. For instance, in recent years China has been a net importer of coal, which generates two-thirds of China’s electricity. It all argues for growth plans that involve less carbon.
问题是中国为什么现在对气候变化如此重视?答案不是因为共产党领导人向环境保护论低头。相反,中国领导人希望用环境问题来召集国内支持,增援改革瓶颈,维持接下来几十年的经济增长。自2008年全球经济增长放缓以来,中国领导人开始明白,要实现经济的持续增长,中国经济需要摆脱建筑业密集型和能源密集型的特点,转向服务集中型经济。与此同时,中国面临能源枯竭问题。举个例子,近几年中国是煤炭净进口国,而煤炭发电量占中国总发电量的三分之二。这些都让低碳经济增长计划成为讨论热点。
●This is where signing international accords, such as the one hoped for in Paris, come in, for they will help the government fight entrenched interests at home. Observers see a parallel with China’s joining the World Trade Organisation in 2001. It allowed leaders to push through internal economic reform against fierce domestic opposition. In the same way, a global climate treaty should help it take tough measures for restructuring the economy.
正如巴黎气候大会所预设达成的协议一样,签署这些国际协议能够让各国政府更有利地对抗国内根深蒂固的利益集团。有分析人士认为中国2001年加入世贸组织的行为也同样有着这一目的。此举让中国领导人能够在强烈的国内反对声音中继续推动内部经济改革。同样,全球性的气候条约能够使得一些重构经济的硬措施成为可能。
●It will not be easy. Provincial party bosses and state-owned enterprises hate to shut factories, particularly in those parts of the country, such as Shanxi and Inner Mongolia in the north, where coal is a big employer. Cutting demand for energy is even harder. Even if the amount of electricity used by state industry falls, that used by private firms and households is bound to increase. What is more, environmental regulations and laws laid down by the centre are routinely flouted.
但是这不会是件简单的事。各省级政府以及各个国企领导不希望关闭工厂,特别是像山西和内蒙古这些以煤矿业提供工作岗位的北方省份。降低能源需求就更苦难了。即使国有产业的用电量下降了,民用和私营企业的用电量一定都会上升。另外,由中央政府制定有关环境的法律法规常常遭到各地政府的无视。
●But cleaning up China’s act has, for the central government, become a political necessity too. Environmental issues have been major public concerns for over a decade, says Anthony Saich of Harvard University, which has conducted polls. True, rural people fret most (and with good reason) about water pollution. But those in the cities gripe about their toxic air. Both represent a reproach to the government over its neglect of people’s lives and health.
但对于中央政府来说,变更中国的行为模式也开始有了政治必要性。哈佛大学的安东尼·塞挈进行了一项投票调查,称环境问题在过去十年中变成了公众关心的一大问题。事情确实是这样的,比如农村居民最担心的是水污染问题(这个担心也是非常合理的)。但那些居住在城市的人抱怨空气中的毒害成分。这两种人都表达了对政府忽略人民生命健康的斥责。
●That is why national economic goals, political goals, public opinion and international pressure all point towards trying to cut emissions, pollutants included. In particular, says Zhang Zhongxiang of Tianjin University, now that dealing with climate change is a pillar of China’s diplomacy, the government must show it can keep its promises. It has some tools at its disposal. Across the country, the environmental record of government officials has become a crucial part of their evaluation by the Communist Party; and cadres will be held accountable for their actions even after leaving their position. Several provinces have already punished officials for environmental accidents and for not enforcing environmental laws.
这也是为什么国家的经济目标、政治期望、民众意见以及国际压力都将矛头指向了减少某些污染物在内的排放量。就像天津大学的张忠祥所说的一样,现在气候变化问题成为中国外交的重点之一,政府必须要拿出遵守承诺的行动。中国有着其自身可用的方法处理环境问题。环境行政档案成为了共产党评定一个政府官员的重要依据,各级政府官员即使在离职后依然要对其在职时所作的决策负责。某些省份已经因为出现有关环境问题的事故或者没有依环境法行政等问题对一些官员进行了惩处。 |
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