2016考研英语阅读题源经济学人文章：Household wealth

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    2016考研英语阅读题源经济学人文章：Household wealth
   
    Household wealth
    家庭财富
    The balance-sheet boom
    资产负债表的繁荣
    Household wealth, and debt, is forecast to swell in2015
    预计2015年家庭财富和债务将膨胀
    WITH the excesses of Christmas nearly over, Britonsare planning their
budgets for the new year. Their decisions will be crucial for the economy.After
paying down debts to repair their balance-sheets in the years after the
financial crisis,consumers are spending again. Yet wealth, like wages, remains
lower than in 2007. A recoveryin riches is an essential component of official
forecasts for further growth.
    随着圣诞节购物狂潮接近尾声，英国人开始进行新一年的规划预算。他们的决定对经济状况至关重要。金融危机之后几年，在偿还完资产负债表的债务后，消费者们又开始消费了。然而家庭财富和工资一样，仍然低于2007年。财富复苏是官方预测未来发展的一个必要因素。
    When the financial crisis hit, wealth immediately suffered (unlike real
wages, which hardlybudged in 2008 but have fallen every year since). Household
net worth—ie, assets minus debts—plummeted by 12% in 2008, driven by a 13% fall
in housing wealth, which makes up justunder half of all household assets. The
hole is not yet filled: adjusting for inflation, housingwealth—168,000
($261,000) per household—remains 13% below its pre-crisis peak. Financialwealth,
which includes investments in stocks and shares, has fared slightly better, but
is stilldown 4% on 2007.
    当金融危机袭来时，财富首当其冲遭受损害(不像实际的工资，2008年勉强回升但从那以后逐年下降)。家庭净值，也就是资产减去债务，在2008年骤然下降了12%，这是受了约占家庭资产一半的房屋财富下降13%的影响。这个窟窿至今还没有被填上：通货膨胀调整、家庭财富(每户168，000英镑(261，000)美元)保持在比危机前峰值低13%的水平。包括股票投资在内的金融财富稍有起色，但仍比2007年低7%。
    As a result, households reduced their debts from 2008. Savings jumped from
around 7% ofincome pre-crisis to 11% by 2010. By 2013 the average household had
62,000 worth of debt,down 16% in real terms on 2007. Largely as a result of this
frugality, household net worth,which averaged 320,000 in 2013, has recovered
about half its losses from the crisis.
    其结果就是，自2008年以来，家庭减少了债务。危机前约占收入7%的储蓄在2010年达到了11%。2013年，每家约有62，000镑的债务，扣除物价因素比2007年降低了16%。在这种俭省的影响下，2013年平均为320，000英镑的家庭净值已挽回了危机中一半的损失。
    That suggests that balance-sheets are not fully patched up. Yet consumers
have been spendingmore; since 2013 saving has hovered around its pre-crisis
level. And forecasts by the Office forBudget Responsibility (OBR), Britain's
fiscal watchdog, see it falling further still, from 6.6% ofincome in 2014 to
5.4% in 2015 and then 4.8% by 2019.
    这表明资产负债表并没有完全被修补好。然而消费者已经开始增加支出了，自2013年，储蓄就在危机前水平左右徘徊。英国财政监督部门预算责任办公室(OBR)预测，储蓄将会进一步下降，从2014年收入的6.6%下降到2015年的5.4%，然后到2019年的4.8%。
    Several factors lie behind the reversal. Better employment prospects mean
workers are less inneed of rainy-day funds. They might also expect wage growth
and want to borrow against thatfuture income. But the most significant factor is
recent house-price growth, which boostshomeowners' wealth without them needing
to save. House prices are up 17.5% on averagesince 2012 (30% in London) and the
OBR reckons a further rise of 7.4% is on the cards in2015.
    这个逆转背后有几个因素。更好的就业前景意味着工人们没那么需要雨天基金了。他们也可以期望涨工资和预支工资。但最重要的一个因素就是最近的房价增长，这使房主的财富增长，不需要存钱了。自2012年以来，房价平均上涨了17.5%(伦敦上涨了30%)。OBR预测2015年可能会进一步上涨7.4%。
    It was a housing boom that allowed the aggregate debt-to-income ratio to
reach a record highof close to 170% before the crisis. The OBR now forecasts
another balance-sheet boom, withdebt surpassing its pre-crisis high in 2017 and
reaching 184% of income by 2020.
    正是房屋市场的繁荣让整体上的债务收入比达到了历史新高，约是危机前的170%。OBR预测将有新一轮资产负债表繁荣，债务将在2017年超过危机前最高水平，在2020年达到收入的184%。
    This is troubling. If puffed-up house prices prove temporary—as in
2007—high debt couldleave households vulnerable and harm the financial system.
Housing is illiquid, meaning that ina crisis fire-sales can cause prices to fall
rapidly. Even at current levels—146% of income—theBank of England rightly frets
about household debt, and in October limited the number of high-risk mortgages
banks can issue (the market has cooled slightly since). The bank's concernmakes
the OBR's forecast look either wrong or terrifying.
    这很棘手。如果和2007年一样膨胀的房价只是暂时的，高额债务可能让家庭财富不堪一击并损害到财政系统。住房是不动产，意味着在危机大甩卖中，房价可能骤跌。即使在现在水平——收入的146%，英国央行担忧家庭债务也无可厚非，在10月份，央行限制了能提供高风险抵押贷款的银行数(自那以后市场就稍微冷却了)。央行的担忧使得OBR的预测看起来要么错了，要么令人惊恐。
    In addition, saving is lower than the figures suggest, according to a
recent working paper byJohn Ralfe, a pensions consultant, and Bernard Casey of
Warwick University. The (recentlyrevised) statistics fail to count pension
payouts as running down savings. Adjust for this andthe savings rate fell to
-0.2% in 2013 and will become more sharply negative if the OBRforecast is borne
out. So much for an end to Christmas excess.
    另外，根据养老金顾问约翰·拉尔夫和华威大学的伯纳德·卡西的一篇工作论文所说，实际储蓄比数据显示的要低。(最近修订的)数据没有将养老金支出当作储蓄流失算进去。对此进行调整后，2013年的储蓄率下降到了-0.2%，如果OBR的预测成真，那这一负数将更大。这就是本次圣诞购物狂欢的大体状况。
    1.crucial for 关键
    Coming on as a substitute, he scored four crucialgoals for Cameroon.
    作为替补队员上场的他为喀麦隆队打入了四粒关键进球。
    To our minds, capital construction is afundamental task crucial for
generations to come.
    在我们看来, 基本建设是百年大计.
    2.financial crisis 金融危机;经济危机
    This financial crisis had a much greater impact on Main Street.
    这次金融危机对老百姓的影响更为深远。
    We must pull our company out of the financial crisis as soon as
possible.
    我们必须使公司尽早摆脱财政危机的困境。
    3.want to 想去;想要
    The difference between who you are and who you want to be is what you
do.
    你是什么样的人和你想成为什么样的之间的差距就是，你做了什么。
    "I want to send a telegram." — "Fine, to whom?"
    “我想发份电报。”—“好的，发给谁?”
    4.close to 接近;靠近
    Three mortar shells had landed close to a crowd of people.
    3枚迫击炮弹落在人群旁。
    Warm weather has attracted the flat fish close to shore.
    煦暖的气候将比目鱼引到了近海。
    1.design to 用于设计;设计到
    The intelligence service conceived a grand designto assassinate the War
Minister.
    情报机构策划了一项暗杀陆军部长的重大计划。
    A rather neat option allows you to design your ownfiendish puzzle.
    只要干净利落地做一个选择，你就能自己设计出难以解开的谜题。
    2.computer model 计算机模型
    Using a computer model they factored in the costs of transplants for those
women who die.
    他们使用计算机模型，把那些死去的女性器官移植的费用计算在内。
    The latest computer model embodies many new features.
    最新型的计算机具备许多新功能。
    3.hope to 希望
    I hope to God they are paying you well.
    我真希望他们给你一份好的酬劳。
    The organisers hope to raise as much as ￡6m for charity.
    组织者希望能募集到高达600万英镑的善款。
    4.climate change 气候变化;气候变迁
    Most scientists accept that climate change is linked to carbon
emissions.
    大多数科学家都相信气候变化与排放的含碳气体有关。
    Climate change is a universal problem.
    气候变化是个世界性的问题。