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发表于 2017-8-6 17:25:34
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The wider concern更广的担忧
The immediate tragedy may be Japan’s; but it also throws up longer-term questions that willeventually affect people all the way round the globe. Stockmarkets stumbled on fears aboutthe impact on the world’s third-biggest economy. Japan’s central bank seems to have stilledtalk of financial panic with huge injections of liquidity. Early estimates of the total damage aresomewhat higher than the $100 billion that Kobe cost, but not enough to wreck a rich country.Disruption to electricity supplies will damage growth, and some Asian supply chains are alreadyfacing problems; but new infrastructure spending will offset some of the earthquake’s drag ongrowth.
眼前受灾的是日本，但也提出了一些长期性、最终将会影响全世界所有人的问题。出于对日本这个世界第三大经济体的担忧，股市跌停。日本的中央银行似乎已经通过大量注入流动性来平息人们对金融市场的恐慌。之前发布的全部损失估计值比阪神地震造成的损失值1000亿美元稍高，但不足以摧毁一个富国。电力供应中断将对经济增长产生破坏作用，亚洲的一些供应链已经面临问题;但是重建基础设施的投资将会抵消地震对经济增长的部分拖累。
Those calculations could change dramatically if thenuclear crisis worsens. As The Economist went topress, helicopters were dropping water to douseoverheating nuclear fuel stored at the FukushimaDai-ichi plant, where there have been explosions,fires and releases of radiation greater, it seems,than the Japanese authorities had admitted. Thecountry’s nuclear industry has a long history ofcover-ups and incompetence, and—notwithstandingthe heroism of individual workers—the handling ofthe crisis by TEPCO, the nuclear plant’s operator, issadly in line with its past performance.
如果核危机恶化，那些估计将会大幅改变。当《经济学人》付印时，直升机正在向福岛第一核电站注水，以给其中贮藏的现已过热的核燃料降温。该核电站已经发生过爆炸和起火，释放出的核辐射看来比日本当局承认的要大。掩盖真相和应对不力在日本的核工业由来已久，虽然作为个体的工人具有英雄主义情怀，但是该核电站的运营商东京电力公司处理这次危机还是跟它的以往表现一样，令人失望。
Even if the nuclear accident is brought under control swiftly, and the release of radiationturns out not to be large enough to damage public health, this accident will have a huge impacton the nuclear industry, both inside and outside Japan. Germany has already put on hold itspolitically tricky decision to extend the life of its nuclear plants. America’s faltering stepstowards new reactors look sure to be set back, not least because new concerns will meangreater costs.
即使核事故很快得到控制，即使释放出的核辐射被证明不足以对公众健康产生危害，这次事故都将对不管是日本国内的还是日本国外的核工业产生很大影响。德国已经收回延长核电站寿命这一政治上很狡猾的决定。美国建设新反应堆的蹒跚脚步看来一定会退却，特别是因为新的担忧意味着更大的耗费。
China has announced a pause in its ambitious plans for nuclear growth. With 27 reactorsunder construction, more than twice as many as any other country, China accounts for almosthalf the world’s current nuclear build-out—and it has plans for 50 more reactors. And in thelong term the regime looks unlikely to be much deterred from these plans—and certainly notby its public’s opinion, whatever that might be. China has a huge thirst for energy that it willslake from as many wells as it can, with planned big increases in wind power and in gas as wellas the nuclear build-out and ever more coal-fired plants.
中国已经宣布暂停其雄心勃勃的核增长计划。中国有27个在建的核反应堆，是任何其他国家的2倍以上，占到世界现有核项目的将近一半，还有再建50个反应堆的计划。从长期来看，中国政府不太可能会畏惧于这些计划，当然也不会畏惧于民意(而无论民意如何)。中国对能源的饥渴似乎吸干多少口井都不够，政府准备大力增加风电和气能还有核电站，以及更多的燃煤火电站。
Thus the great nuclear dilemma. For the best nuclear safety you need not just good planningand good engineering. You need the sort of society that can produce accountability andtransparency, one that can build institutions that receive and deserve trust. No nuclear nationhas done this as well as one might wish, and Japan’s failings may well become more evident. Butdemocracies are better at building such institutions. At the same time, however, democracymakes it much easier for a substantial and implacable minority to make sure things don’thappen, and that seems likely to be the case with plans for more nuclear power. Thus nuclearpower looks much more likely to spread in societies that are unlikely to ground it in theenduring culture of safety that it needs. China’s nearest competitor in the new-build stakes isRussia.
因此，这是关于核电站的两难问题。要使核设施达到最高的安全性，不仅需要良好的规划和设计，还需要能够做到负责和透明的社会，因为这样的社会才能建立起能够得到并且值得信任的机构。有核国家没有哪个做得如同期望的那么好，由于这次事故日本未能做到这点可能变得更加明显。但是，民主国家更善于建立这种能够得到并且值得信任的机构。但是，民主同时也使少数执拗者更容易阻碍一定事情的发生，关于核能的计划似乎很可能面临这种情况。因此，在核能所需安全的持久文化不太可能为其提供支撑的社会，核能似乎更可能扩张。在新建核电站上跟中国最接近的对手是俄罗斯。
Yet democracies would be wrong to turn their backon nuclear power. It still has the advantages ofoffering reliable power, a degree of energy security,and no carbon dioxide emissions beyond thoseincurred in building and supplying the plants. Interms of lives lost it has also boasted, to date, areasonably good record. Chernobyl’s death toll ishighly uncertain, but may have reached a fewthousand people. China’s coal mines certainly kill2,000-3,000 workers a year, and coal-smogged airthere and elsewhere kills many more. It remains areasonable idea for most rich countries to keep some nuclear power in their portfolio, notleast because by maintaining economic and technological stakes in nuclear they will have morestanding to insist on high standards for safety and non-proliferation being applied throughoutthe world. But in the face of panic, of sinister towers of smoke, of invisible and implacablethreats, the reasonable course is not an easy one.
但是，如果民主国家抛弃核能，那就错了。核能依然具有提供可靠电力、一定程度上保障能源安全、没有二氧化碳排放的优点。在致死数量方面，迄今为止，核能的记录合理而良好。切尔诺贝利的死亡人数现在还高度不确定，但可能已经达到几千人。中国的煤矿每年必定会夺取两三千工人的生命，煤矿和其他地方含有较多煤尘和烟雾的空气致死人数更多。对大多数富国来说，在能源组合中保留一些核能还是合理的想法，特别是因为通过维护在核问题经济和技术上的利益，它们在要求世界范围内采用高标准的安全性和不扩散方面会有更大的说服力。但是，在恐慌面前，在丑恶的烟塔面前，在隐形的和难以解除的威胁面前，这条合理的道路不会平坦。
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