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Mosteconomistshategold.Not,youunderstand,thattheywouldturnuptheirnosesatabarortwo.Buttheyfindthereverenceinwhichmanyholdthemetalalmostirrational.Thatitwasusedasmoneyformillenniaisirrelevant:itisn’tanymore.Modernmoneytakestheformofpaperor,moreoften,electronicdata.Toeconomists,goldisnowjustanothercommodity.
Sowhyisitspricesoaring?Overthepastweek,thishastopped$450atroyounce,upby9%sincethebeginningoftheyearand77%sinceApril2001.Ah,comesthereply,goldtransactionsaredenominatedindollars,andtheriseinthepricesimplyreflectsthedollar’sfallintermsofothercurrencies,especiallytheeuro,againstwhichithitanewlowthisweek.Expressedineuros,thegoldpricehasmovedmuchless.However,thereisnoironlink,asitwere,betweenthevalueofthedollarandthevalueofgold.Arisingpriceofgold,likethatofanythingelse,canreflectanincreaseindemandaswellasadepreciationofitsunitofaccount.
Thisiswheregoldbullscomein.Thefallinthedollarisimportant,butmainlybecauseasastoreofvaluethedollarstinks.Withafewlongishrallies,thegreenbackhasbeenonadownwardtrendsinceitcameoffthegoldstandardin1971.Nowitissufferingoneofitssharperdeclines.Atthemargin,extrademandhascomefromthosewhothinkdollars--indeedanymoneybackedbynothingmorethanpromisestokeepinflationlow--adecidedlyriskyinvestment,mainlybecauseAmerica,withtheworld’sreservecurrency,hasbeenabletocreateandborrowsomanyofthem.Theleastpainfulwayofrepayingthosedollarsistomakethemworthless.
Thestrikingexceptiontothisextrademandcomesfromcentralbanks,whichwouldliketosellsomeofthegoldtheyalreadyhave.Asalegacyofthedayswhentheircurrencieswerebackedbythemetal,centralbanksstillholdone-fifthoftheworld’sgold.LastmonththeBankofFrancesaiditwouldsell500tonnesincomingyears.Butbigsalesbycentralbankscancausethepricetoplunge--aswhentheBankofEnglandsold395tonnesbetween1999and2002.Theresultwasanagreementbetweencentralbankstoco-ordinateandlimitfuturesales.Ifthepriceofgoldmarcheshigher,thisagreementwillpresumablyberippedup,althoughadollarcrisismightmakecentralbanksthinktwiceaboutswitchingintopapermoney.Willtheoverhangofcentral-bankgolddragthepricedownagain?Notnecessarily.AsJamesGrant,goldbugandpublisherofGrant’sInterestRateObserver,anewsletter,pointsout,inrecentyearsthehugeglutofgovernmentdebthasnotstoppedasharpriseinitsprice.
1.Ineconomists’eyes,goldissomething__________.
A.theylookdownupon
B.thatcanbeexchangedinthemarket
C.worthpeople’sreverence
D.thatshouldbereplacedbyotherformsofmoney
2.Accordingtotheauthor,oneofthereasonsfortherisingofgoldpriceis___________.
A.theincreasingdemandforgold
B.thedepreciationoftheeuro
C.thelinkbetweenthedollarandgold
D.theincrementofthevalueofthedollar
3.Wecaninferfromthethirdparagraphthat_________.
A.thedeclineofthedollarisinevitable
B.Americabenefitsfromthedepreciationofthedollar
C.thedepreciationofthedollarisgoodnewstoothercurrencies
D.investmentinthedollaryieldsmorereturnsthanthatingold
4.Thephrase"rippedup"(Line1,Paragraph5)mostprobablymeans__________.
A.strengthened
B.broadened
C.renegotiated
D.tornup
5.Accordingtothepassage,theriseofgoldprice__________.
A.willnotlastlong
B.willattractsomecentralbankstosellgold
C.willimpelcentralbankstoswitchintopapermoney
D.willleadtoadollarcrisis |
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