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Earlier this year, when America first sneezed, the European Central Bank
(along with most private-sector economists) argued that the euro area was
insulated from America's slowdown and had little to worry about. This seems to
have been wrong. In Germany there are fears about recession as business
investment and retail sales tumble. Recent figures confirmed that Germany's GDP
stagnated in the second quarter. Italy's GDP fell in the second quarter, and
although growth has held up better in France and Spain, the growth in the euro
area as a whole was close to zero in the quarter. Nobody is forecasting an
actual recession in the euro area this year, but it is no longer expected to
provide an engine for world growth.
As for Japan, it is probably already in recession. Japan's GDP grew
slightly in the first quarter. Persistent deflation continues to be a severe
problem. A revised measure of Japan's consumer-price index, to be published
soon, is likely to show that deflation is worse than had been thought. (170
words) |
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