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『卡扎菲死后，利比亚新格局正在形成 。』
A new timetable
利比亚现状 — 新的时间表出炉
Oct 29th, 2011 | from The economist

  WHEN Libya’s new rulers declared on October 23rd that their country,  with the fall of Sirte and the death of Muammar Qaddafi, had  definitively been liberated, a constitutional-cum1-electoral clock began  to tick. First, within a month, the chairman of the current National  Transitional Council, Mustafa Abdel Jalil, is to appoint an interim2  government. Within three months it should pass preliminary electoral  laws. And within eight months Libyans are to elect about 200 delegates  to an assembly charged with3 drafting a constitution to be approved by a  referendum4 within another year, meaning mid-2013. Once the  constitution is endorsed5, elections for a parliament and later for a  president will follow.
Unlike neighboring Tunisia6, which  already had a constitution worth amending7, Libya is starting from  scratch8, since the colonel abhorred9 such things. In a speech to  announce Libya’s liberation, Mr Abdel Jalil said the country’s laws  would be based on sharia1, that “usury2” would be banned and polygamy3  allowed. This dismayed4 many secular-minded5 Libyans, who chided6 him  for pre-empting7 decisions that will be the purview8 of the constituent  assembly.
Mr Abdel Jalil commands9 respect both from  Islamists. But he may find it hard to maintain harmony between  factions10 as they draft a constitution. Proceedings in the council have  been tense since the killing in July of Abdel Fatah Younis. Since then,  the avuncular11 chairman has held things together12. “It is very  important that the council sticks to its timetable and that no one  prolongs it,” says Guma el-Gamaty.
But rushing things may create  problems, too. Libya has no licensed political parties and no formal  forum yet for discussing the future in a constructive way. They cannot  be created overnight. As elsewhere in the region, the Islamists seem  better organised than their secular rivals13.
The first step  must be reining14 in the plethora15 of paramilitary forces that are  basking in their triumph over Colonel Qaddafi and integrating them into a  fledgling16 national army. This too will take time. Many of the  militias have ferocious local loyalties. Abdel Hakim Belhaj, an Islamist  who commands Tripoli’s anti-Qaddafi forces, has proposed a plan to draw  the revolutionaries into a new army and police force.
Meanwhile, the  former head of the council’s executive committee stepped down17 on  October 23rd. His deputy, Ali Tarhouni, who holds the oil and finance  portfolios18, is set to replace him. But the Misrata faction is also  lobbying for one of its own to have the job. Mr Abdel Jalil’s future is  also unclear. He previously said that he too would step down once the  liberation was declared. But many people hope—and guess—he can be  persuaded to stay on as a calming influence.
Rivalry between  Benghazi and Tripoli for control of the oil sector persists. Libya’s oil  men are getting production back on stream a lot faster than many  expected. Investors are already returning in droves1 but it is not yet  clear who is empowered to oversee the contracts. Such uncertainties are  inevitable2 in the early days of the new order. But some ministries,  including those in charge of energy and finance, are already running  quite well. Compared with Iraq in the days after the fall of Saddam  Hussein, Libya is in much better shape3. (533 words)
文章地址: http://www.economist.com/node/21534813