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发表于 2016-8-15 23:12:20
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2002 Text 3
Could the bad old days of economic [B]decline [/B]be about to return? Since [B]OPEC [/B]agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices [B]quadruple[/B]d, and 1979-1980, when they also almost [B]triple[/B]d. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit [B]inflation [/B]and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of [B]gloom [/B]and [B]doom [/B]this time?
The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq [B]suspend[/B]ed oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term.
Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic [B]consequence[/B]s now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.
Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy [B]conservation[/B], a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil [B]consumption[/B]. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP (in constant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The [B]OECD [/B]estimates in its latest [I]Economic Outlook[/I] that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of [B]GDP[/B]. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies — to which heavy industry has shifted — have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed.
One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A [B]sizable [/B]portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. [I]The Economist[/I]'s commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%.
51. The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is ________.
[A] global inflation
[B] reduction in supply
[C] fast growth in economy
[D] Iraq's [B]suspension [/B]of exports
52. It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if ________.
[A] price of crude rises
[B] commodity prices rise
[C] consumption rises
[D] oil taxes rise
53. The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries ________.
[A] heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive
[B] income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices
[C] manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed
[D] oil price changes have no [B]significant[/B] impact on GDP
54. We can draw a conclusion from the text that ________.
[A] oil-price shocks are less shocking now
[B] inflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks
[C] energy conservation can keep down the oil prices
[D] the price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavy industry
55. From the text we can see that the writer seems ________.
[A] optimistic
[B] sensitive
[C] [B]gloomy [/B]
[D] scared
[B]
[/B]
[B]重点词汇[/B][B]:[/B]
[B]decline [/B]/di5klain/[B] [/B](n.v.下降;衰落v.谢绝)←de向下+cline倾斜;同根词:incline(v.倾斜;倾向于n.斜坡)←in(=to)+cline。People decline invitations when they are "indisposed" physically, and I wish they would do likewise when they fell indisposed emotionally.人们在身体“不适”时谢绝邀请,我希望他们在觉得情绪上不适时也能同样做。We perceive when love begins and when it declines by our embarrassment when alone together.我们由仅余两人时的局促不安察觉爱情于何时发生,何时减退。
[B]OPEC[/B](石油输出国组织)即Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries。
[B]scary [/B]/5skZEri/[B] [/B](引起惊慌的)即scar(e)+y,scare(n.v.惊恐),-y形容词后缀。More powerful creation may scare many people away, but more intrepid people will be captivated by it.更加强有力的作品可能吓退许多人,但比较勇敢的人们会被它吸引住。
[B]quadruple [/B]/5kwCdrupl/[B] [/B](四倍的;使成四倍;四倍)即quadru+ple,quadru-前缀“四”(=quarter),ple词根“折叠”,complicated所含的词根plic也是“折叠”的意思(参2002年Text 2)。
[B]triple [/B]/5tripl/[B] [/B](三倍的;使成三倍;三倍)即tri+ple,tri-前缀“三”,如triangle(三角形)←tri+angle角。
[B]inflation [/B]/in5fleiFEn/[B] [/B](膨胀;通货膨胀;自夸)即in+flat+ion,in-(=into),flat词根“吹”,-ion名词后缀,故“往里面吹”→膨胀。Inflation: When nobody has enough money because everybody has too much.通货膨胀:由于人人钱太多而谁的钱都不够的时候。inflation — the period when the standard of living continues to rise until the people can't afford it 通货膨胀——生活水平持续上升直到人们负担不起的时期。
[B]gloom [/B]/^lu:m/[B] [/B](v.n.阴暗;忧愁),形容词为[B]gloomy [/B]/5^lu:mi/[B] [/B](阴暗的;阴沉的),那首据说有杀人魔力的歌曲就叫Gloomy Sunday。Love is the flame of life, without it, everything in life becomes gloomy.爱是生命的火焰,没有它,生命中的一切都变得暗淡无光。
[B]doom [/B]/du:m/[B] [/B](n.厄运v.注定)。A society that gives to one class all the opportunities for leisure, and to another all the burdens of work, dooms both classes to spiritual sterility.一个将闲暇的全部机会都给予一个阶级,而将劳作的全部重负都给予另一个阶级的社会,注定了两个阶级都处于精神贫瘠。
[B]suspend [/B]/sEs5pend/[B] [/B](v.悬挂;延缓)即sus+pend,sus-前缀“在下面”,pend词根“挂”,故“暂且挂在下面不管”→搁置;名词形式为[B]suspension [/B]/sEs5penFEn/[B] [/B]←sus+pens挂+ion。The best of men cannot suspend their fate.最好的人也无法推迟死亡。
[B]consequence [/B]/5kCnsikwEns/[B] [/B](后果;重要性)←con+sequ(=follow)+ence。It is easy to dodge our responsibilities, but we cannot dodge the consequences of dodging our responsibilities.逃避责任很容易,但逃避责任的后果我们却无法逃避。With books, as with companions, it is of more consequence to know which to avoid, than which to chuse(chuse是古英语=choose).读书如交友,懂得避开哪些比懂得选择哪些更重要。
[B]conservation[/B] /7kCnsE(:)5veiFEn/[B] [/B](保护;保存;守恒)即con+serv(e)+ation,con-前缀“全部”,serve词根“保持”(=keep),-ation名词后缀;动词为conserve←con+serve。A state without the means of some change is without the means of its conservation.不具备某种变革手段的国家也不具备保存自己的手段。
[B]energy-intensive[/B] 能源密集型。
[B]consumption [/B]/kEn5sQmpFEn/[B] [/B](消费量,消耗)即consum(e)+ption,consume(v.消费,消耗),-ption名词后缀,m后加p便于发音,如assume(假定;承担;呈现)→assumption、presume(v.假设)→presumption。Conspicuous consumption of valuable goods is a means of reputability to the gentleman of leisure.引人注目地挥霍贵重财物是有闲绅士取得名声的手段。We have no more right to consume happiness without producing it than to consume wealth without producing it.我们没有权利享用幸福而不创造幸福,正像没有权力享用财富而不创造财富一样。
[B]consultancy [/B]/kEn5sQltEnsi/[B] [/B](顾问工作;咨询业)←consult+ancy名词后缀;consult(v.商量;查询;会诊)←比consul(领事)在最后多字母t,“他(t)去找‘领事’‘商量’”,名词为consultation←consult+ation名词后缀。Well, one can always consult a man and ask him: "Would you like your head cut off tomorrow?" and after he has said: "I would rather not", cut it off. Consultation is a vagues and elastic term.是的,什么时候都可以跟一个人商量,问他:“你愿意明天被砍头吗?”接着,在他说了“我不愿意”之后,砍掉他的脑袋。磋商是个含糊的带弹性的词。←这是英国老流氓丘吉尔说的,意思是:既然不愿意明天砍头,那么就在今天砍吧。
[B]GDP[/B](国民生产总值)即Gross Domestic Product。
[B]OECD[/B](经济合作与发展组织)即Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development。
[B]estimate [/B]/5estimeit/[B] [/B](v.n.估计,估价)。True modesty does not consist in an ignorance of our merits, but in a due estimate of it.真正的谦虚不在于对自己的长处一无所知,而在于对它们的恰当评价。
[B]excess[/B](/5ekses/ n.过量 /ik5ses/ a.额外的)即ex+cess,ex-前缀“出”,cess词根“走”,故“走到范围之外的”→过量的;动词形式为exceed(超过)←ex+ceed走。The best things carried to excess are wrong.最好的东西超过限度也会变坏。He is poor whose expenses exceed his income.开支超过收入的人就是穷人。
[B]sizable [/B]/5saizEbl/[B] [/B](相当大的)←siz(e)+able;size(大小,尺寸)。You can tell the size of a man by the size of the things that make him mad.根据使一个人发怒的事情的大小,可以判断这个人的气量。
[B]significant [/B]/si^5nifikEnt/[B] [/B](有意义的;重要的)即signify(y变形为i)表示+cant形容词后缀,“值得表示的”→有意义的;signify即sign+ify,sign标记,-ify动词后缀,“作标记”→表示。An art is only great and significant if it is one that all may enjoy.艺术作品只有在所有人都可以欣赏时才是伟大的、重要的。Love has various lodgings; the same word does not always signify the same thing.爱拥有形形色色的住所,同一个词不总是意味着同样的东西。
[B]难句解析[/B][B]:[/B]
①Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short time.
▲该句是一个含有插入成分的单句。主语是Strengthening economic growth,谓语是could push,插入成分是一个时间状语。
△本句阅读的重点是要首先抓住主句的基本结构。
②In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.
▲该句是一个复杂句,由两个单句构成,中间用so来表示前后的因果关系。
△本句阅读的重点是一些短语和词组。account for占…的部分;muted原意是“沉默的,被弄哑的”,在文章里的意思是“不太显著的”;pump price油品零售价格。
③Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption.
▲该句是一个简单句,只是主语复杂一点,其谓语部分是have reduced oil consumption。
△本句阅读的重点在主语,注意它里面有三个并列成分:Energy conservation,a shift to other fuels,第三个是a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries。
④The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP.
▲本句的主句是The OECD estimates... that,本句复杂的地方在其宾语部分,里面有一个条件状语if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998,而主句是后面的部分,其中的主语this指代的是if条件句。
△本句阅读的重点在于抓住句子的主干。
⑤One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand.
▲本句的主句是One more reason is that...。比较复杂的是其以that引导的表语从句,它的主语是it,指代的是the rise in oil prices。
△本句阅读的重点在于了解一些短语的意思:lose sleep over因…而失眠;occur against the background of...发生在…的背景之下。
[B]试题解析[/B][B]:[/B]
51. [B][B][/B]
此题的难度合适,区分度好。
本题的答题依据是第一段的第二句话,“Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December.”看懂了这句话,这道题就很容易了。
52. [B][D][/B]
此题的难度合适,区分度好。
本题的关键信息在第三段的第三句话“In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price,so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.”意思是说:在欧洲,汽油的零售价中税占到五分之四,因此税的增加会导致汽油价格的(成比例)猛涨,而原油价格的变化带来的影响不会很大。
53. [B][D][/B]
此题较易,区分度很好。
本题的答题依据是第四段中的下面这句话“The OECD estimates in its latest Economic outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25%-0.5% of GDP.”这是一道比较容易的题。
54. [B][A][/B]
此题的难度合适,区分度很好。
本题的答题依据是全文的最后一段,强调这次油价上涨与20世纪70年代的上涨不同,也就是没有70年代的那一次那么可怕。
55. [B][A][/B]
此题比较容易,区分度很好。
本题是一道比较容易的题。答题依据贯穿全文,尤其是第三段和最后一段的第一句话,强调人们不必担心此次油价上涨,因为这一次的情况与20世纪70年代不同。
[B]全文翻译[/B][B]:[/B]
过去经济衰落的日子会不会重来?自从石油输出国组织在3月决定减少原油供应,原油的价格便从去年12月的不到10美元一桶上升到约26美元一桶。这次近3倍的涨价令人想起了1973年和1979~1980年两次可怕的石油恐慌,当时的油价分别涨了4倍和近3倍。前两次的油价暴涨都导致了两位数的通货膨胀和全球性的经济衰退。那么这次警告人们厄运来临的头版新闻都到哪里去了呢?
本周伊拉克暂停石油出口,这使油价又一次上扬。强劲的经济增长势头,随着北半球冬季的到来,有可能在短期内使石油价格涨得更高。
然而,我们有充分的理由预期这次油价暴涨给经济带来的影响不会像20世纪70年代那么严重。与70年代相比,现在多数国家的原油价格占汽油价格的份额要小很多。在欧洲,税金在汽油零售价的比例高达4/5,因此,即使原油价格发生很大的波动,汽油价格所受的影响也不会像过去那么显著。
发达国家对石油的依赖性也不如从前,因此对油价的波动也就不会那么敏感。能源储备、燃料替代以及能源密集型重工业的重要性的降低,都减少了石油消耗量。软件、咨询及移动通讯消耗的石油,比钢铁、汽车行业少得多。发达国家国民生产总值中每一个美元所消耗的石油量比1973年少了近一半。国际经合组织在最近一期的《经济展望》中估计,如果油价持续一年维持在22美元左右,与1998年的13美元一桶相比,这也只会使发达国家的石油进口在支出上增加GDP的0.25%~0.5%。这还不到1974年或1980年收入减少部分的1/4。另一方面,进口石油的新兴国家由于转向了重工业,消耗能量更大,因此可能会受到石油危机的强烈影响。
另外一个不应因油价上升而失眠的原因是,与20世纪70年代不同,这次油价上升不是发生在普遍的物价暴涨及全球需求过旺背景之下。世界上很多地区才刚刚走出经济衰落。《经济学家》的商品价格指数与一年前相比总的来说也没有什么变化。1973年的商品价格跃升了70%,而1979年也上升了近30%。
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