2014年考研《经济学人》：自由交流 中英文对照
根据历年真题研究发现考研的阅读理解的文章一般都是从国外的期刊上摘抄下来的，像The Economist 《经济学家》、Newsweek 《新闻周刊》、Times《时代周刊》、Now York Times 《纽约时报》等，下面太奇考研英语辅导老师整理了《经济学人》阅读周刊，希望能对同学们的阅读带来更大的视野。Free exchange
自由交流
High, wide or handsome?
通货膨胀率预期高乎?准确乎?经济形势明朗乎?
Inflation expectations remain low on average. But their dispersion is troubling
通货膨胀预期依然保持在较低的平均水平，但是预期之间的差异却令人担忧。
Mar 16th 2013 |From the print edition
INFLATION hawks watch measures of inflation expectations for signs that money-printing central banks are weakening price stability. Central bankers study inflation expectations just as closely: if there is little evidence of rising expectations, they can argue that the inflation genie will stay safely corked. But expectations matter not just because they show how high people assume inflation will go. They also provide a window on how unsure people are about the future path of price rises. And increasing uncertainty can inflict damage of its own.
通货膨胀的“鹰派”紧盯通胀预期指标，搜寻开动印钞机的央行削弱价格稳定性的迹象。央行高官对通胀的研究也非常细致：若没有证据证明通胀预期正处于上升趋势，那么他们就认定通胀这只恶魔依然被封存在瓶子里。通胀预期的重要性体现在两方面：首先，它不仅仅表明人们对通胀高低所作的预测。其次，它们还提供了一个窗口，从这里能够得知人们对未来价格升高方向是如何的不确定。而与日俱增的不确定性终会让市场自食恶果。
No one denies the harm that high inflation can do. After a bout of rapid price rises, a self-fulfilling process can take hold. Expecting further price rises, workers demand higher pay. As wages rise, so do firms’ prices. When big pay rises become the norm, it can be hard to squeeze inflation out of the system without a period of high unemployment.
高企的通胀对经济造成的危害早已成为共识。市场经历一轮价格迅速上涨之后，一种自我实现机制便开始强力运作起来。劳动者们认为价格会进一步上涨，于是他们会要求更高的薪水。薪资水平的上升带动企业产品价格的上涨。当薪水大幅上升成为常态之后，若不经历一段时间的高失业率，要想控制住通货膨胀绝非易事。
Even at lower levels, however, inflation can still be costly if there is uncertainty about its rate. If expectations turn out to be wrong, the resulting inflation shock creates winners and losers. Because wages are set annually, but the price of goods is more fluid, workers’ buying power can change after contracts have been signed. Either the employee or the firm loses out. Bonds and loans that are fixed in nominal terms become less attractive to investors than assets like commodities and buildings whose prices move with inflation. Lenders may demand a premium, increasing borrowers’ funding costs. Investment and growth suffer.
如果通胀比率不确定，即便是通胀处于较低水平，造成的代价依然不菲。如果通胀预期被证明出是错误的，由此产生的通胀冲击便会立判市场主体的输赢。由于薪资水平是一年为计时单位来制定的，商品价格却具有更强的流动性，在合同签订之后劳动者的购买力会有所变化。要么是企业，要么是员工，总有一方因为对通胀率估算不准而蒙受损失。对于投资者来说，以固定票面价格标价的债券和贷款与价格随通胀浮动的大宗商品和建筑类资产相比，前者的吸引力变的越来越弱。贷款方或许会收取溢价金额，增加借款方的融资成本。投资和经济增长便会遭受重创。
There are several ways of measuring inflation expectations. They suggest that people do not think there will be a surge in rich-world inflation. But they also reveal mounting levels of disagreement as to where inflation will end up. One method is to survey consumers about where they think prices will go. Britain is a natural place to look for ingrained expectations of high inflation: price rises have been above the Bank of England’s 2% target for 54 of the past 60 months. Yet surveys* conducted by GfK NOP, a consultancy, show that median inflation expectations rose in 2008 but fell back when inflation dropped in 2009 (see left-hand chart). American surveys tell a similar story. Based on public polls, there seems little risk of a 1970s-style wage-price ratchet.
衡量通胀预期的方式并不单一。这些方式表明人们认为发达国家不会出现通胀激升的局面。可是它们同样也说明了在通胀将来会止于何处这一问题上存在的分歧实在是霄壤之别。一个方法是就价格趋势做消费者调查。英国对高通胀的预测根深蒂固，这使得它成为开展此项调查的不二之选：过去60个月中，英国有54个月的价格涨幅高于英格兰银行2%的控制目标。可是市场调研公司GfK NOP开展的研究表明，2008年通胀预期中位数有所上升，可是当2009年通胀率降低之后又有所回落(见左表)。在美国展开的调研得出了与此类似的结果。从民调结果看来，1970年代薪资-价格水平步步激化的局面现在出现的几率似乎为零。
But surveys do point to greater uncertainty. Expectations were tightly packed in the mid-2000s. By the end of 2008 views were wildly divergent: one in five Britons thought inflation would be above 5%, another fifth expected deflation. Deflation fears have since abated, but a group expecting high inflation remains.
但是这些调研却意味着更大的不确定性。2000年代中期，对通胀的预测值密集地集中在一个区段。但是2008年末，各路观点出现了巨大的分歧：1/5的英国人认为通货膨胀率高达5%以上，而另1/5的人预测会出现通货紧缩。对通缩的担忧已经减弱，可预测会出现高通胀率的人却大有人在。
Another way to judge expectations is to study the prices of assets that provide inflation protection. Inflation-linked government bonds pay interest just like a regular (nominal) bond. But the final pay-off is adjusted up if prices rise, guaranteeing a real return. So if a nominal bond has a yield of 4% and a real one a yield of 1%, investors in the nominal bond are being paid 3% as compensation for the risk of inflation.
另一个判断通胀预期准确与否的方法是研究资产价格，这些资产提供保险以免遭由于通胀带来成资产缩水的风险。与通胀挂钩的政府债券和一般(票面价格计价)债券支付的利息相同。如果价格上升，为了确保实际的投资回报，最终支付的金额会有所调整。因此，如果票面价格计价债券的收益率为4%而实际价格计价债券的收益率是1%，中间3%的差额就会作为票面价格计价债券投资者的通胀风险补偿。
This “break-even” inflation rate—the difference between the yields on normal and inflation-protected bonds—is actually a product of three main factors. One is liquidity: since nominal bonds are easier to sell, this tends to reduce the premium that nominal bondholders demand. Two inflation-related factors offset this. First, if investors expect rapid price rises, nominal bonds will need a big extra pay-off. Second, nominal bonds must pay an “inflation-risk premium” to compensate holders for the fact that its real return is uncertain. In a 2010 paper Refet Gürkaynak of Bilkent University, Brian Sack of the Federal Reserve and Jonathan Wright of Johns Hopkins University teased out these three factors. They found that investors’ expectations of what American inflation would be echoed the consumer surveys, shooting up in 2008 then quickly dropping back. But the inflation-risk premium painted a different picture. It increased over time, suggesting that investors were less certain about the likely path for prices.
这种损益平衡的通胀率——票面价格计价债券收益率和通胀保险债券收益率之间的差异 ——实际上是三个因素共同作用下的产物。其一是流动性：由于交易以票面价格结算的债券变得越来越便利，这降低了此类债券持有人收取的溢价金额。其它两个与通胀有关联的因素对此起到了抵消的作用。首先，如果投资者预计价格会迅速上涨，票面价格计价债券交易就会产生大量的额外支付。其次，票面价格计价债券必须支付“通胀风险金”来补偿持有人，因为票此类债券的实际投资回报率是不确定的。在2011年发表的一篇论文中，土耳其Bilkent大学教授Refet Gürkaynak，美国联邦储蓄储蓄委员会(Federal Reserve，简称美联储)高管布莱恩•萨克(Brian Sack)和约翰•霍普金斯大学(Johns Hopkins University)教授约翰森•莱特(Jonathan Wright)对上述三个因素做了深入的研究。他们发现投资者对美国通胀所作的预期与消费者调查两相呼应，二者均在2008年大幅升高接着又迅速回落。但是通胀风险溢价却描绘出另一番景象。通胀风险溢价随时间的上升表明投资者对价格走势可能性趋向的确定性越来越低。
Checking the options
期权风向标
New derivatives—inflation caps and floors—provide an even richer gauge of expectations. These options help insure against extreme inflation outcomes. An investor seeking to protect the return on a nominal bond buys a cap from a seller, paying an agreed price. In exchange, the seller agrees to pay out whenever inflation is above an agreed rate. This payment offsets the loss to the investor, providing insurance against inflation above the agreed rate. Inflation floors are the mirror image of this contract.
新型金融衍生工具——通胀上限和下限——提供了更为丰富的预测技术。期权有助于投资者投保以避免通胀带来极端的后果。想要保住票面价格计价债券投资回报率的投资者以协议价格从债券出售人手中购买通胀上限保险。作为回报，出售人同意无论在任何时候只要通胀率高于协定比率就会对投资者做出补偿。这一部分支付金额冲销了投资者的亏损，为投资者提供了保险以免遭通胀高于协议比率而造成的亏损。而通胀下限完全是该合同的镜像，道理相同，方向相反。
The information embedded in these contracts shows how much investors will pay to avoid a range of future inflation rates, and how much sellers will charge to insure against these outcomes. In a 2012 paper Yuriy Kitsul of the Federal Reserve and Mr Wright use these data to derive a full distribution of options-implied inflation expectations. This allows them to calculate daily probabilities of American inflation being above or below a chosen rate, and to test how these probabilities react to news. When the Federal Reserve announced a second bout of quantitative easing in November 2010, the probability of deflation slid.
涵盖在此类合同中的信息显示了投资者需要支付多少金额才能避免一定范围内未的未来通货膨胀率，以及出售者为确保投资者免受损失所要收取的金额。美联储经济学家尤里•契苏尔(Yuriy Kitsul )和莱特教授利用这些数据导出了隐含期权的通胀预期概率函数。这一函数使得他们能够计算每天美国通胀率高于或低于一个既定比率的概率，而且还能测试这些概率如何随着新闻作出相应的变化。2010年11月美联储宣布第二轮量化宽松之时，通缩概率有所降低。
Such methods also allow inflation-watchers to test whether expectations are tightly anchored or spread out. A 2012 paper by Tom Smith of the Bank of England tracks options-implied expectations for Britain over time. At the start of 2008 the average expectation was close to 3%; it was still close to this in the summer of 2012. Although the average was little changed, four years of volatile inflation had changed the spread a lot. In 2008 options pointed to a 90% chance that inflation in 2017 would lie between 1.8% and 5.0%; by July 2012 that range was -2.2% and 7.7% (see right-hand chart). The average investor may not be more concerned about inflation than four years ago, but there is less certainty about where prices are heading. That is worrying in itself.
这些方法同样能够使通胀观察家们测试通胀预期是持续不变还是有扩大的趋势。2012 年英格兰银行经济学家汤姆•史密斯(Tom Smith)发表了一篇论文，他跟踪分析了英国的隐含期权通胀预期随时间推移所发生的变化。2008年初，英国平均通胀预期接近3%;直到2012年夏天依然维持在这一水平左右。虽然均值未变，但四年来起伏不定的通胀率改变了预期之间的差额。2008年，期权数据表明2017年通胀率在1.8%到5.0% 之间的概率为90%;到2012年7月这一范围变成了-2.2%到7.7%之间(见右表)。一般投资者对通胀的关注与四年前相比或许所差无几，但他们对价格的走向却越来越不确定。而这本身就是一个令人担忧的问题。
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