Mixed views over New Zealand future interest rates

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    Professionals in predictions for interest rates in New Zealand for the year vary widely ahead of Thursday's official cash rate review by the New Zealand Reserve Bank.
    Deutsche Bank expects the Reserve Bank to take a steady approach, but with an annual inflation at 3.2 percent, chief economist Darren Gibbs said the current rate of 8.25 percent was more likely to be raised in the second half of the year than cut.
    He expects the Reserve Bank will stand by its December monetary policy statement that noted inflationary pressures had increased and interest rates were likely to remain stable.
    So the current rate would be generally consistent with the bank's acceptable inflation range of 1 percent to 3 percent over the medium term.
    Gibbs said he expected the Reserve Bank to treat the latest inflation figures with caution, and little had happened since the December statement that would cause it to raise the rate this week.
    ANZ economist Cameron Bagrie also picked rates to stay where they are for most of the year. He said if the central bank were looking to cut rates, it would mean there were real concerns for the economy.
    But that is exactly what UBS economist Robin Clements is picking for mid-year rate reviews. Heartened by a housing market reacting to the four consecutive interest rate rises last year, he said the Reserve Bank would be unlikely to raise the interest rate amid fears of a U.S. recession.
    Developments since the last monetary policy statement include a weakening economy, decline in business confidence, mixed consumer confidence surveys, further softening of the housing market and export projections revised down.
    Westpac has predicted two rates rises this year to bring the rate to 8.75 percent.
    Chief economist Brendon O'Donovan said rising oil and food prices were likely to force the Reserve Bank's hand.
    The bank forecasts inflation will hit 3.5 percent in the third quarter of this year.   
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