Consumer Price Growth is Forecast to Fall in H1 2008

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    Consumer prices may drop to 5.9 percent in the first half of next year and continue declining for the rest of 2008, the central bank's research bureau forecast in a report published on Friday.
It forecast consumer prices will rise 4.5 percent for the whole year in 2008.
The major gauge of inflation is now at its peak and will slow markedly in 2008. The report said consumer prices will average 6.2 percent this quarter before slowing to 6.1 percent in the first quarter of 2008. It will drop to 5.7 percent in the second, 3.5 percent in the third and 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter, according to the report.
The People's Bank of China's prediction differed from Deutsche Bank, which said on Monday that China's consumer prices may rise 3.8 percent in 2008 after a set of tighter monetary policies take hold.
On Thursday, the central bank adjusted interest rates for the sixth time this year to contain inflation and cool the economy from overheating.
The benchmark one-year lending rate has increased 0.18 percentage point to a nine-year high of 7.47 percent. The one-year deposit rate will rise 0.27 percentage point to 4.14 percent.
Earlier this months, Chinese banks were also asked to put aside 14.5 percent of capital as reserves in the central bank, the 10th increase this year, to curb inflation and excess liquidity.
In November, China's consumer prices climbed to an 11-year-high of 6.9 percent from a year earlier.
The growth followed a 6.5-percent jump in October and pushed the combined figure for the first 11 months to 4.6 percent.
"The surging cost of food is the major reason for this round of consumer-price rises," said the report by the central bank. "With the rising prices of food in the global market and the lagging effect for the supportive policies to take effect, the food-cost rises will continue to be the major driver of inflation over a relatively longer term."
Food prices, which make up about one-third of the CPI basket, rose 18.2 percent in November from a year ago.
Meanwhile, the central bank's researchers expected gross domestic product growth to slow to 10.9 percent in 2008 from this year's 11.4 percent.
Earlier this month, the Asian Development Bank forecast China's GDP to rise 10.5 percent next year.
Retail sales may continue to grow strongly with an average increase of 13 percent in 2008, the report said. Sales will be boosted by incentives, including the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing and rising incomes.
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