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发表于 2016-8-15 22:28:41
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Italy and Spain are under attack not because their finances have suddenly deteriorated, but because investors fret that they may be forced to default. For this loss of confidence, blame the pretence. Europe’s leaders have repeatedly denied that Greece is insolvent (when everyone knows it is), failing to draw a line between it and the likes of Spain and Italy, which are solvent but short of liquidity. The excuse is that a Greek restructuring may cause contagion. In fact denying the inevitable has undermined pledges about solvent governments.
小编注解:fail to do 未能做某事 draw a line 划清界限
意大利和西班牙受到危机影响并不是因为两国财政突然恶化,而是投资者们担心他们可能会被迫违约,而这种信心的丧失应该归咎于他们的伪装。欧元区领导人不断否认希腊即将破产(但每个人都知道希腊即将破产的事实),没有将希腊同西班牙和意大利划清界限,让人们意识到这两国只是缺乏流动性,但依然有偿还债务能力。欧元区领导人总是以希腊重组有传染性为由而破坏其他有偿还能力政府的信用。
Instead of austerity and pretence, a credible rescue should start with growth and, where it is unavoidable, a serious restructuring of debt. Europe must make an honest judgment about which side of the line countries are on. Greece, which is unambiguously insolvent, ought to have a hard but orderly write-down. The latest, inadequate plan for a second Greek bail-out, agreed at a summit in July, should be thrown away and rewritten. But all the other euro members (and on present numbers Portugal is just about in the solvent camp) should be defended with overwhelming financial firepower. All the troubled economies, solvent or insolvent, need a renewed programme of structural reform and liberalisation. Freeing up services and professions, privatising companies, cutting bureaucracy and delaying retirement will create conditions for renewed growth—and that is the best way to reduce debts.
小编注解:restructuring of debt 债务重组 bail-out 应急措施 free up 空出来,削减
除了停止财政紧缩政策和掩盖事实真相外,还应该实施促进经济增长的可靠救援政策和无法避免的债务重组。欧元区必须做出诚实判断应该救援哪些国家。毫无疑问,希腊已经破产,应该坚决有序地确认损失。七月欧盟峰会上通过的针对希腊的第二次救援计划应该废弃重订。而对于其他欧元区成员国(葡萄牙是有偿还能力的其中一员)需提供一个可靠的经济支持。最后,所有欧元区国家,无论是否有偿还债务能力,都需要进行结构化改革并实现自由化。削减政府部门,使公司私有化,减少官员编制和延长退休年龄将为经济增长创造条件,而这些也是减少债务最好的办法。
How to prevent contagion? A Greek default would threaten many banks, not just in Greece: this week the markets took aim at French banks that hold southern European debt. Moreover, solvent countries need a breathing-space to push through reforms. That points to agreeing to two measures at the same time: a scheme to shore up the banks, which may take months to put into practice, and a rock-solid promise to support solvent governments, which has to be immediate.
小编注解:take aim at 瞄准;盯着;注意到;以…为目标 push through 完成;促成;排除困难办好事
如何减少危机传染?希腊债务违约将威胁很多银行,这些不仅仅包括希腊境内的。这周市场就攻击了持有南欧债务的法国银行身上。此外,有偿还能力的国家需要有合适的空间来完成改革。这就意味着有两个措施需同步进行:一是有个框架来支撑银行,这可能需要几个月的时间,第二个就是稳若磐石的承诺来支持有债务偿还能力的政府。
The recapitalisation of Europe’s banks must be based on proper stress tests. Some banks may be able to raise money in the equity markets, but the most vulnerable will need government help. Core countries like Germany and the Netherlands have enough cash to look after their own banks, but peripheral governments may need euro-zone money. Ideally that would come from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), whose overhaul was the most useful thing to emerge from the July summit. But it also makes sense to set up a euro-zone bank fund, together with a euro-zone bank-resolution authority. That is part of the longer-term institution building. However, the ECB could help the banks by giving a commitment to provide unlimited liquidity for as long as it is required, rather than a rolling six months, as now.
对欧洲银行的资本重组应建立在谨慎试验的基础上。有些银行可能有能力在证券市场融资,但更多的脆弱银行则需要政府的帮助。像德国和荷兰这样的核心国家有足够资金支持本国银行,但外围区国家则需要欧元区支持。欧洲金融稳定基金(European Financial Stability Facility,EFSF)是最理想的援助渠道,对该基金的全面了解是七月峰会浮现出的最有用的东西。但是专门设立一项欧元区共同银行基金也未尝不可。当然这是一项长期建设工程。但是,欧洲中央银行也应该承诺对那些需要帮助的银行提供无限制的流动性,而不是现在所说的六个月时间。
The great firewall of Europe
欧洲经济防火墙
None of this will work unless the Europeans create a firewall around the solvent governments. That means shoring up euro-zone sovereign debt. Spain and Italy owe €2.5 trillion. What if the markets suddenly took fright over Belgium or France? Some have argued for a system of Eurobonds in which every country’s debt is backed by all. But the political oversight to ensure that high-spending countries do not fritter away other people’s money would take years to sort out—and one thing the euro zone does not have is time. The answer is to turn to the only institution that can credibly counter a collective loss of confidence on such a scale.
小编注解:take fright over sth. 对……担忧 fritter away 一点点浪费;消磨 sort out 解决,清理
除非欧洲人在有债务偿还能力的国家间构筑经济防火墙,否则上述工作将无法实现,这也就意味着支持欧元区主权国债务。西班牙和意大利共欠了2.5万亿欧元,如果市场突然担心比利时和法国的主权债务怎么办?有人建议设立一个欧洲债券系统,由欧洲国家共同担保,可是通过政治上的监管来确保高支出国家不会浪费其他国家的血汗钱可能需要好几年时间实现——而目前欧元区最缺的就是时间。因此,当务之急是建立一个可以有效应对如此规模危机的特殊机构。
The ECB must declare that it stands behind all solvent countries’ sovereign debts and that it is ready to use unlimited resources to ward off market panic. That is consistent with the ECB’s goal to ensure price and financial stability for the euro zone as a whole. So long as governments are solvent and the bank sells the bonds back to the market after the crisis, this does not amount to monetising government debt. In today’s recessionary world, the ECB could buy several trillion euros-worth of bonds without unleashing inflation.
小编注解:ward off 抵御,避开 consistent with 符合;与……一致
欧洲中央银行必须声明确保支持所有有偿化能力的国家的主权债务,并准备好利用手中资源抵御市场恐慌。这与欧洲中央银行确保欧元区整体价格与金融稳定的目标是一致的,只要政府有能力偿还债务,同时银行在危机过后将债权投入市场,这样就不会出现债务货币化的危机。在目前的经济衰退世界,欧洲中央银行可以购买数万亿欧元债券而不会引发大规模通货膨胀。
Even so, this is a huge step. The ECB’s German officials have taken to resigning in protest at the limited bond-buying undertaken so far. They fear not only that so young an institution is vulnerable to a loss of credibility, but also that the ECB, which is independent but unelected, could become embroiled in political decisions—especially by declaring a state insolvent and cutting it off. Both these longer-term risks are real, but they are far outweighed by the need to stop the rot. It would be a nonsense if the ECB’s dogged defence of monetary rigour led, say, to an Italian default and a global depression.
即使如此,这也是艰难的一步。欧洲中央银行的德国官员已经辞职抗议大规模购买债券。他们担心这个年轻的机构能否抵挡住这场信用危机。而且,虽然欧洲中央银行是一个独立机构,其成员也并非选举产生,但依然很容易卷入政治决策中——特别是当宣布一个国家破产或者把一个国家逐出欧元区的时候。这些长期风险的确存在,但阻止危机变得更严重比预防这些风险重要得多。如果欧洲中央银行继续实行严格的货币政策,最终导致意大利出现违约或者引发全球的金融危机将得不偿失。 |
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