2017考研英语阅读精选：猪肉价格飙升与中国经济
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Pork prices rising fast but are not the barometer for the economy they used
to be
猪肉价格飙升不能反映中国经济运行状况
导读:自年初以来，中国猪肉市场价格经历了较大涨幅。然而和前几轮猪肉价格波动的情况不同，此次的价格上涨似乎不能完全反映中国经济的运行状况。
Pork prices in China have soared since the beginning of the year, rising
24.1 percent year-on-year in the first quarter. Pork prices have long been seen
as a barometer for China’s economy as the Chinese are among the world’s top pork
consumers and production and supply of the meat may to some extent reflect how
the economy is performing.
自年初以来，中国的猪肉市场价格一直在飙升，数据显示第一季度猪肉价格同比上涨24.1%。
猪肉价格一直以来都被视为中国经济的晴雨表，因为中国是世界上最大的猪肉消费国之一，猪肉的生产和供应能够在某种程度上反应中国经济的表现。
However, the recent surge in pork prices was directly caused by a decrease
in pig slaughtering, so it is quite different from previous rounds of price
surges and probably less related to the overall national economic situation.
然而，最近猪肉价格的飙涨是由于生猪屠宰量的减少而导致的，这和前几轮猪肉价格上涨的原因具有显著的不同，因此此次价格上涨对整体国家经济状况的反映有限。
Pork prices are susceptible to a boom-and-bust cycle. The recent surge in
prices probably belongs to the same rising price cycle that started in March
2015. It is quite likely that prices will rise significantly in the first months
of this year and then stabilize at a relatively high level for the rest of the
year.
猪肉价格对经济的上下波动非常敏感。年初的这次猪肉价格飙升很可能和始于2015年3月的价格上涨属于同一价格波动周期。在今年头几个月里，猪肉价格很可能会有一个较大的涨幅，而且将在余下的几个月里保持高位。
Moreover, the recent price surge was basically caused by tight supply. This
is in contrast with what happened in the past when prices were not only affected
by supply but also by the pace of economic growth as well as monetary supply.
When the economy booms and monetary supply remains ample, more resources may
flow to the pork production sector.
与此同时，此次猪肉价格的上涨主要是由猪肉市场供应短缺造成的。而前几轮的猪肉价格上涨却有不同的原因，除了供应不足外，经济增长周期和货币供应也会影响中国的猪肉价格。当经济繁荣且货币供应充足的时候，更多的资源就会流入到猪肉生产部门。
The robust growth of China’s economy in the past few years led to rising
incomes and upgrading of the overall consumption structure. It also fueled pork
consumption and resulted in tighter pork supply.
在过去的几年里，中国经济的强劲增长提高了公民的收入，同时引起了国内整体消费结构的升级，也刺激了猪肉的消费，导致猪肉市场供应不足。
Although the Chinese government has rolled out policies to stabilize the
economy and made greater efforts to support the poor, signs of economic recovery
have been weak and the possibility of high economic growth for this year is very
small. Therefore, the recent surge in pork prices has occurred even though
economic growth is just stable and rapid growth is unlikely.
尽管中国政府已经出台了许多政策，以求实现经济稳定发展和更大力度的扶持贫困人群，但是经济复苏的迹象依然疲软，而且今年实现经济高速增长的希望也十分渺茫。因此，在目前中国经济放缓且发展平稳的情况下，此次猪肉价格的飙升和前几轮的价格波动有着不同的原因。
The previous rounds of surges in pork prices also happened when monetary
supply expanded quickly. But as the economy has entered a new normal of slower
growth since 2014, monetary supply has remained stable. Studies have shown that
there is a time lag in the impact of monetary supply on prices of agricultural
products such as pork, but monetary supply has been stable for the past two
years, so it is unlikely to have been a significant factor in the rise in pork
prices.
前几轮猪肉价格上涨的同时，也伴随着货币供应的急剧增加。但是自从2014年中国经济进入以更慢速度增长的新常态之后，国内的货币供应就一直很稳定。一些研究表明货币供应对猪肉等农产品价格的影响存在时滞。但在过去的两年里，中国的货币供应一直保持稳定。因此货币供应不可能是导致此次猪肉价格上涨的重要原因。
The previous rounds of price surges also added considerably to inflationary
pressure. The recent rise may to some extent affect inflation, but its impact
will not be that significant. Instead, the impact of vegetable prices on the
Consumer Price Index, a main gauge of inflation, has been greater than that of
pork prices in recent months.
前几轮的猪肉价格上涨也给中国经济增加了较大的通胀压力。而此次的肉价上涨虽然也可能在某种程度上导致通货膨胀，但是影响的程度将不会比前几次更大。相反，在最近几个月里，另一个通货膨胀主要的衡量标准--蔬菜价格--对消费者物价指数的影响力度要比猪肉价格的影响大得多。
Meanwhile, the possibility that the recent rise in pork prices may induce a
price surge in agricultural products is very small. Therefore, the recent rise
of pork prices may not fully reflect how the economy is running.
与此同时，近期猪肉价格上涨诱发农产品价格连锁上涨的可能性也很小。因此，近期的猪肉价格上涨也许并不能够充分反映中国经济的运行状况。
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