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“Leftover men”not a crisis in the making
“剩男”危机论，为时过早
The number of 30-plus bachelors, or "leftover men", in China’s rural areas
is astonishing. Some demographers estimate there may be 30 million, even 50
million of them thanks to the widening sex ratio at birth. But such estimation,
to some extent, overstates the reality of rural residents’ marital status.
在中国农村地区，三十岁以上单身男(俗称“剩男”)数量惊人。据一些人口统计学家称，由于日益加剧的男女比例失调，这一数字保守估计达三千万，甚至有推测为五千万。然而这种对于农村地区婚姻状况的推断在某种程度上有些言过其实。
The gender imbalance may indicate the number of unmarried men, not
necessarily "leftover men", is higher than women. But since a husband can be
five years older than his wife, and vice-versa, the age gap is not a major
concern in marriage.
男女比例失衡也许可以预测未婚男子的数量(不一定都是“剩男”)比女性高。但是这没有考虑到年龄差距在婚姻中并不是主要影响因素，例如丈夫可能会比妻子年长五岁，反之亦然。
The gender imbalance at birth started widening in 1995 and peaked about 10
years later. In other words, most of those born during this period are less than
20 years old-and hence not old enough for marriage-and will reach the "leftover
men’s threshold" after only about 10 years.
男女出生率失衡在1995年出现，并在十年后达到顶峰。也就是说，这段时间出生的人现在还不满二十岁，尚未到达结婚年龄，而要等到十年后才能讨论是否为“剩男”。
Therefore, the nearly 20 million men in rural areas who remain unmarried
despite crossing their 30s have little to do with the gender imbalance at birth.
The problems they face in getting a wife, too, vary from region to region.
因此，造成近二百万的农村大龄未婚男子出现的原因跟男女比例失衡关系不大，而是根据地域的不同有各自的原因。
One thing is certain, the causes behind the serious problem of "leftover
men" are complicated and abnormal. About 30 percent of them couldn’t get married
at the socially accepted marriageable age because of physiological or
psychological defects, with another 30 percent having failed because they kept
waiting for their "dream partners".
有一点可以确定的是，引发如此严重“剩男危机”的原因是复杂和不寻常的。他们当中，有30%的人没能在正常年龄结婚是因为存在生理或心理方面的缺陷，另外还有30%的人是在等待自己心仪的另一半出现。
Only 10 percent or so of the "leftover men" failed to find a wife because
of their "background"-which mostly happened before the mid-1980s for certain
historical reasons. The highest percentage of "leftover men"-almost 60
percent-couldn’t get married because they couldn’t afford to pay the dowry for a
bride.
只有大约10%的男性由于八十年代中期的历史因素未能结婚。而由于担负不起高额的嫁妆而不能结婚的“剩男”最多，占总数的60%。
Men born between 1975 and 1986 (the years could now be extended to 1987 and
1995), about 12 million, constitute the majority of the unmarried rural
population. Worse, more men from the suburbs will join their ranks. But a social
crisis is not yet in the making.
在1975年到1986年间出生的男子(现在可能已经扩大到1987年至1995年)约有一千两百万，是农村未婚群体的主力军。更糟糕的是，越来越多的农村男子正在加入这一行列，但是这并不意味着一种的社会危机正在形成。
The gender imbalance at birth has played a limited role in the "leftover
men" problem. They, however, could trigger an even greater crisis-a situation in
which more men in their 30s or 40s remain unmarried in the next decade or
so.
虽然男女出生比例失衡与“剩男”现象的出现关系不大，但是却可以加重这一现象从而引发更严重的危机，在接下里十几年甚至更长的时间里，越来越多的30岁到40岁的未婚男性将会出现。
Measures have to be taken to deal with this huge social problem. For
starters, promoting healthy spending on marriages and exempting men from paying
huge dowries-traditionally and compulsorily demanded by brides’ families-are
apparently worth a try. In some cases, weddings have become more like business
transactions, which could give rise to vicious dowry competitions and make it
more difficult for poor and not so well-off men to get a bride.
如今，亟需采取有效措施来应对这一严重的社会问题。首先，目前值得一试的方法应该是提倡合理的婚姻消费理念，使男方不再受困于天价“彩礼”(传统婚俗里男方必须向女方支付的礼金)。在中国结婚有时演化成了商业交易，这助长了“天价彩礼”的不良之风，从而使中低收入家庭的男性更难娶妻。
To offset the accumulative effects of gender selection before birth, which
is still practiced in some areas, the authorities have to take more measures
than just encouraging all couples to have two children.
另外，为了消除至今仍在各地普遍存的产前性别预测多年来影响，政府部门不能仅仅停留在开放二胎生育的政策上，还有采取更多的措施。
Besides, local governments should work harder to implement the
poverty-alleviation programs. They can for instance, relocate entire communities
suffering from extreme poverty and scarce natural resources to better places.
Also, people should be educated in away to stop discriminating against rural men
when it comes to choosing a groom.
除此之外，当地政府部门应该加强扶贫工作的开展，比如，为极度贫困和资源匮乏的地区重新规划新的社区。同时，要加强教育工作，消除大众在择偶时对农村男性的歧视。
来源:China Daily
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