2015年考研英语阅读冲刺集训：Cheaper oil
考研冲刺复习，英语阅读要加强集中练习，提高阅读速度，掌握做题技巧，在实战中不断提升和磨砺。下面新东方在线分享几篇《经济学人》题源文章，大家可以作为了解和训练。2015年考研英语阅读冲刺集训：Cheaper oil
Cheaper oil
油价下跌
Winners and losers
赚了还是赔了?
America and its friends benefit from falling oil prices;its most strident
critics don't
美国及其盟友将从油价下跌中获益;最为毒舌的批评者们却不能如此
IN EARLY October the IMF looked at what might happen to the world economy
if conflict in Iraqcaused an oil-price shock. Fighters from Islamic State (IS)
were pushing into the country'snorth and the fund worried about a sharp price
rise, of 20% in a year. Global GDP would fall by0.5-1.5%, it concluded. Equity
prices in rich countries would decline by 3-7%, and inflationwould be at least
half a point higher.
十月初，国际货币基金组织(IMF)预估了一旦伊拉克冲突导致油价震荡会带来怎样的后果。
伊斯兰国(IS)的武装分子在向该国北部进军时，IMF担心今年油价可能会猛增约20%。它还估计今年全球GDP增速可能会下滑0.5%至1.5%。富裕国家的股价跌幅可能会达到3%至7%，而通胀率可能至少会上浮0.5个百分点。
IS is still advancing.Russia, the world's third-biggest producer, is
embroiledinUkraine.Iraq,Syria,Nigeria and Libya, oil producers all, are in
turmoil. But the price of Brentcrude fell over 25% from 115 abarrel in mid-June
to under 85 inmid-October, before recoveringa little. Such a shift has global
consequences. Who are the winners and losers?
IS仍在继续进军。世界上第三大出口国俄罗斯也身陷乌克兰国内的冲突中。伊拉克、叙利亚、尼日利亚和利比亚这些石油生产国都处在动荡中。但是北海布伦特原油的价格却从七月中旬的每桶115美元跌至十月中旬的不足85美元，跌幅超过25%，随后又出现小幅回升。这样的价格波动给全球都带来了影响。那么谁是赢家谁是输家呢?
The first winner is the world economy itself. A 10% change in the oil price
is associated witharound a 0.2% change in global GDP, says Tom Helbling of the
IMF. A price fall normally boostsGDP by shifting resources from producers to
consumers, who are more likely to spend theirgains than wealthy sheikhdoms. If
increased supply is the driving force, the effect is likely to bebigger—as in
America, where shale gas drove prices down relative to Europe and, says the
IMF,boosted manufactured exports by 6% compared with the rest of the world. But
if it reflectsweak demand, consumers may save the windfall.
第一个赢家当属全球经济本身。IMF的汤姆·赫尔布林表示，油价波动10%，就会带来全球GDP约0.2%的浮动。正常情况下，油价下跌会助推GDP的增长，因为会将石油从生产国那里转移给消费国，而后者比那些富裕的酋长国支出收益的可能性更大。如果石油供应增加成为驱动力，那么它的影响会更大—因为美国的页岩气推动了石油价格下跌，而IMF表示，与之有关的欧洲推进了制造品出口，涨幅较世界其他地区而言，达到了6%。但是，如果油价下跌反映出需求趋弱，那么消费国可能会大获横财。
Today's falling prices are caused by shifts in both supply and demand. The
world's slowingeconomy, and stalled recoveries in Europe and Japan, are reining
back the demand for oil. Butthere has been a big supply shock, too. Thanks
largely to America, oil production since early2013 has been running at
1m-2mbarrels per day (b/d) higher than the year before. Otherinfluences are
acting as a brake on the world economy. But a price cut of 25% for oil,
ifmaintained, should mean that global GDP will be roughly 0.5% higher than it
would beotherwise.
石油供需的变化共同导致了今天的油价下跌。世界经济增速缓慢，欧洲和日本的经济恢复近乎停滞，这些都抑制了对石油的需求。但是，石油供给也遭受了冲击。美国自2013年初起其石油的日产量就比去年增加了一两百万桶，这可是大功臣。还有其他的一些影响成为世界经济增长的后腿。但是如果能维持油价25%的跌幅，这就意味着全球GDP增速会提高约0.5%。
Some countries stand to gain a lot more than that average, and others, to
lose out. The worldproduces just over 90mb/d of oil. At 115 abarrel, that is
worth roughly 3.8 trillion a year; at 85,just 2.8 trillion. Any country or group
that consumes more than it produces gains from the 1trillion transfer—importers,
most of all.
一些国家的收益肯定会比其他国家多，但也有一些国家会损失不少。全球每天的石油产量仅为900万桶，按每桶115美元算，其每年的产量大约值3.8万亿美元。如果每桶为85美元，其价值仅为2.8万亿美元。如果任何一个国家或集团的石油产量低于消费量，那么它便能从这一万亿美元获益——大多数是石油进口国。
China is the world's second-largest net importer of oil. Based on 2013
figures, every 1 drop inthe oil price saves it an annual 2.1 billion. The recent
fall, if sustained, lowers its import bill by60 billion, or 3%. Most of its
exports are manufactured goods whose prices have not fallen.Unless weak demand
changes that, its foreign currency will go further, and living standardsshould
rise.
中国是世界上第二大石油进口国。根据2013年的数据来看，油价每下跌1美元，每年便能为其节约21亿美元。如果最近的油价下跌情况能够保持住，将会为其节约600亿美元的石油进口费用(约3%)。中国的出口大多为工业制成品，其价格已经在走低。如果疲弱的需求会改变这种局面，该国的外汇便会增加，人民生活水平也会相应提高。
考研初试在即，考生要好好利用余下时间，最大化的提升复习效果，为考试做好充分的准备，拼起来吧，考生们，此时不拼更待何时？预祝大家都能取得理想成绩！
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