2015考研英语阅读复习材料：2014年投资者应留意的14项风险
What does 2014 hold for investors?投资者在2014年要注意些什么?
The central bet has to be more of the same: easy monetary policy, albeit lower for slightly less long; modest but steady global economic growth, led by the U.S.; further improvements in the euro zone; slightly higher rates of inflation and lower growth in emerging market economies; softer risk-free bond markets, tight spreads on corporate debt and an upward bias to equities though the bull's wild charge is likely to slow.
今年的基本情境预期是：宽松货币政策将维持，不过宽松程度有所降低，持续时间也略微减少;在美国经济带领下，全球经济取得温但稳健的增长;欧元区状况进一步改善;通货膨胀率小幅上升，同时新兴市场经济体增速放缓;无风险债券市场继续走软，公司债价差收窄，同时股市维持走高倾向，不过上涨势头可能减弱。人们应据此进行押注。
Right now, it looks as though markets are in one of those Goldilocks periods, when everything's just right and nothing could possibly go wrong. But there are substantial risks investors ought not to ignore.
目前市场似乎正处风平浪静的阶段，各个领域运转正常，也看不出哪里会出问题。不过，存在一些投资者不应忽略的重要风险。
I've categorized them by asset class, though there's plenty of crossover.
以下按资产类别列出了这些风险因素，不过许多因素可能同时影响多个资产类别。
DEVELOPED EQUITIES
发达国家股市
1) The U.S. market's boom during 2013 caught everyone off guard and now even some of the most ursine of money managers are factoring in the prospect of yet more dramatic gains. The general argument is that so far mom and pop investors haven't participated in this run and until they do, the market won't peak. But an interesting behavioral study of bubble formation from a few years back showed that when self-identified 'amateur' investors get burned twice by a bubble, they keep clear. Professionals, on the other hand, were shown to get sucked in a third time, thinking they can get out before everyone else. Is this the third bubble?
1)美国股市2013年取得的强劲上涨出乎绝大多数人的预料，目前就连一些坚定看跌的基金经理也开始评估市场进一步大幅走高的可能性。市场总体观点是，到目前为止，个人投资者尚未参与这轮上涨，在这些人入市前，股市不会见顶。不过，一项针对以往泡沫形成的有趣行为研究发现，自认为是外行的投资者在经历两次泡沫破裂的打击后就会不再入市。而专业投资者则会第三次进入市场，原因是认为这一次自己能够做到及时脱身。目前是否是第三次泡沫期呢?
2) U.S. equities have been underpinned by very high rates of corporate profitability. These profits have, in turn, owed a lot to government deficits and workers' inability to press for higher wages. As government deficits fall and employment growth picks up, those profit margins as a proportion of GDP will start to come down. If those margins fall faster than GDP rises, investors could start to reconsider some of the hefty valuations they've pinned on equities.
2)处在极高水平的企业利润率为美国股市本轮上涨提供了支持。企业之所以能取得如此高的利润水平，很大程度上归因于美国政府维持赤字以及劳动者无力要求加薪。随着美国政府赤字缩减，同时就业增长加快，企业利润相对于国内生产总值(GDP)的比例将开始下降。如果企业利润下降速度快于GDP增速，投资者可能开始考虑部分股票高企的估值是否合理。
3) As economic growth picks up, so too will bond yields. This will reduce the present value of future income streams and should push down valuation multiples.
3)随着经济增长加快，债券收益率上升速度也会加快。这将减少未来收入流的现值，进而压低估值倍率。
4) Alternatively, growth could slow as the U.S. economy shows itself to be on a long-run deflationary path, much like Japan. If investors lose faith in the Federal Reserve's ability or willingness to halt the process and the government proves reluctant to use fiscal policy to promote growth, equities could slide.
4)也可能出现的情况是，美国经济像日本那样步入长期通货紧缩轨道，从而增长将放缓。如果投资者对于美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称：美联储)应对这种局面的能力或意愿失去信心，同时美国政府被证明不愿使用财政政策促进增长，股市可能出现下跌。
5) Investors have placed considerable faith in the European Central Bank's ability to do 'whatever it takes' to guarantee the euro's survival. But 'whatever it takes' implies the sort of massive intervention--not least wholesale purchases of sovereign euro zone debt--that is still political anathema in Germany and other core euro zone countries. Investors should assume the ECB's promise will eventually be tested.
5)投资者对于欧洲央行(European Central Bank)“竭尽所能”捍卫欧元的能力给予了很大信任。不过，竭尽所能的含义包括实施一些仍受到德国等欧元区核心国家反对的干预举措，尤其是大规模购买欧元区主权债务。欧洲央行的这一承诺可能最终受到考验。
6) Similarly, investors in Japanese equities have placed considerable faith in Abenomics' ability to cure the country's economic ills, not least deflation. Inflation has picked up with a falling yen. But unless rising consumer prices feed through into wage pressures, inflation won't be self-sustaining. Instead, it will create further deflationary pressures and is likely to trigger a sharp correction in equities. If inflation does prove to be self-sustaining, there's likely to be a sharp correction in Japanese government bonds, which is bound to generate volatility in other Japanese asset markets.
6)同样，日本股市的投资者也对安倍经济学医治日本经济顽疾(尤其是通货紧缩)的能力给予了信任。在日圆走软的推动下，日本通货膨胀已经上升。不过，除非消费物价的上涨能推动薪资提高，否则通货膨胀的上升难以自我持续。如果薪资无法提高，反而会增加通货紧缩压力，并可能引发股市大幅回落。若通货膨胀的上升确实被证明可能持续，日本国债价格可能大幅走低，而这无疑会导致其他日本资产市场出现波动。
EMERGING EQUITIES
新兴市场股市
7) During the past few years, emerging markets have been blessed with falling inflation and rising growth. This has fed a virtuous circle of appreciating currencies, large capital inflows and yet further falls in inflation. This is coming to an end, and in countries like India, Turkey and Brazil is already over. Economies have run out of capacity for non-inflationary growth at recent rates. Foreign investors are increasingly less keen on supporting large current account deficits. Currencies are falling, inflation is picking up and growth is slowing. Investors are rediscovering political risk. The virtuous circle could quickly turn very vicious indeed.
7)过去几年，新兴市场一直享受着通胀下降和经济增长，这催生了本币升值、资金大规模流入及通胀尚未进一步回落等良性循环。不过，这些情况行将结束，而对于印度、土耳其和巴西等国来说，好日子已然过去。新兴经济体已经失去了在近期水平实现无通胀经济增长的能力。越来越多的海外投资者已经不再那么热衷于支持巨额经常项目赤字。汇率水平正在下降，通货膨胀正在上升，经济增长也正在放缓。投资者再次发现这些国家面临着政治风险。之前的良性循环可能很快会变成极为恶性的循环。
SOVEREIGN DEBT
主权债市场
8) The central likelihood is that sovereign bond yields in major developed markets push higher with stronger U.S. growth--Treasuries are the global benchmark after all--though at a controlled pace set by the Federal Reserve. There's a significant risk that Treasuries sell off sharply if investors come to doubt the Fed's lower for longer message--particularly if wage growth starts to pick up strongly with a better jobs market. This would create substantial ripples throughout global bond markets and other asset markets.
8)主要发达经济体的主权债收益率很可能随着美国经济强劲增长而进一步上涨，毕竟美国国债是全球债券市场的基准，不过主权债收益率上升速度则由美联储掌控。然而，如果投资者开始质疑美联储在较长时间内维持超低利率的政策，特别是在薪酬增速开始随着就业市场的好转而迅速加快的情况下，那么美国国债则将面临被急剧抛售的巨大风险。这将严重波及到全球债券市场和其他资产市场。
9) A smaller risk is that the U.S. recovery has less momentum than it appears to (see 4 above). The result would be a large bond rally and further falls in sovereign yields.
9)一个较小的风险是，美国经济复苏的动能并没有看起来那么强劲(见上文第四条)。那么结果就是，债券价格大幅上涨且主权债收益率进一步下跌。
10) Spreads in European sovereign debt markets have come down sharply with the ECB's promise to preserve the single currency. That promise has yet to be fully tested (see 5 above). Investors should never underestimate politicians' willingness to make catastrophic choices in pursuit of short-term electoral advantage. Nor should they overestimate people's willingness to shoulder heavy economic costs for very long periods with diminishing rewards at the end. The euro zone crisis has yet to be fully played out.
10)欧洲央行捍卫欧元的承诺使得欧洲主权债市场息差急剧收窄。欧洲央行的承诺尚未彻底经受考验(见上文第五条)。投资者永远不应低估决策者为了追求短期选举优势而做出毁灭性选择的意愿，也不应高估在报酬最终递减的情况下人们在很长时间内肩负巨大经济成本的意愿。欧元区危机尚未完全结束。
CORPORATE DEBT
公司债市场
11) Spreads on high yield debt are undoubtedly in bubble territory--investors have chased yield to the point where they seem to think corporate default will never again exist in a world where central banks will always defend their interests. Jeremy Stein, a Fed board member, warned about these risks in a speech. Furthermore, he noted that while a central bank might try macro-prudential policies to restrain market excesses, sometimes they weren't effective. In that case, rates would have to rise to make sure investors got the message. The Fed could yet surprise investors by taking a more aggressive stance on corporate debt and spreads.
11）高收益债息差无疑已经出现泡沫，投资者似乎认为，全球央行总是会捍卫公司利益，公司债绝不会再次违约，因此他们一直在追求高收益。美联储理事会成员Jeremy Stein曾在发表讲话时对这些风险予以警告。此外，他还指出，尽管央行可能试图通过宏观审慎政策来遏制市场的过分行为，但有时效果并不好。在这种情况下，为了确保投资者领会到这一信息，利率则需上升。美联储未来可能对公司债和息差采取更加强硬的立场，这将令让投资者吃惊。
12) Falling corporate profitability or weaker economic growth (see 3 or 4) could yet show up in higher rates of corporate default. That would be a harsh reminder to investors that it might be wise to demand a risk premium on assets.
12）公司盈利能力下滑或经济增长疲弱（见上文第三条和第四条）可能还未导致公司违约几率上升。这就提醒投资者，要求资产风险溢价可能是明智的。
COMMODITIES
大宗商品市场
13) Commodities are a China story. As long as everything's fine with China, commodity prices are likely to stay well supported. The consensus is that China will engineer a soft landing, that it will manage a transition from investment and export-led growth to more domestic demand, that interest rates will normalize and the country's credit expansion will be reined in. That's placing a lot of faith in policymakers who have created a huge investment and real estate bubble and who operate on central planning principles that have been found to be flawed in the past. A Chinese hard landing would hit commodities hard and thus commodity producers like Australia and Canada.
13）大宗商品市场与中国息息相关。只要中国形势一片大好，大宗商品价格就很可能获得良好支撑。目前外界的普遍预期是：中国将引导经济软着陆，并将设法从投资和出口主导的经济增长转向内需主导的增长，利率将正常化且中国信贷扩张势头将会得到遏制。这表明外界对中国决策者充满信心，尽管中国此前滋生了巨大的投资和房地产泡沫，而且过去的中央规划原则被证明存在缺陷。如果中国经济出现硬着陆，则将对大宗商品市场造成沉重打击，进而重创澳大利亚和加拿大等大宗商品生产国。
REAL ESTATE
房地产市场
14) Easy money has inflated property prices world-wide. Some property markets, especially those of commodity producing countries like Australia and Canada, look distinctly bubbly. Others, not least London, have seen hot money inflows from China and other emerging markets. A normalization of interest rate policy, a hard landing in China or even deflationary pressures could yet see some of these markets go pop.
14）宽松货币政策在全球范围内推高了房地产市场价格。一些房地产市场、特别是澳大利亚和加拿大等大宗商品生产国的房地产市场的泡沫似乎极为明显。其他地区，尤其是伦敦，则有来自于中国和其他新兴市场的大量热钱流入。利率政策正常化、中国经济硬着陆、甚至是通货紧缩压力都可能导致其中一些市场泡沫破裂。
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