考研阅读精选：舞蹈的巨人--中美在东南亚
China and America in South-East AsiaDance of the giants
舞蹈的巨人--中美在东南亚
http://images.koolearn.com/casupload/upload/fckeditorUpload/2011-12-05/image/eefe4e5b4e2b4dc3bfbbd5823b62a341.jpg
THE spectre looming over Barack Obama’s eight-day swing through Asiawas unmistakable. Behind the talk of a trans-Pacific free-trade zone,and the agreement to rotate American troops through a base in northernAustralia, and America’s first participation in the East Asian Summitmeeting in Bali, the president’s tour was all about China.
As ifto mark the end of a decade in which a rising China was superseded byradical Islam as America’s biggest potential security threat, Mr Obamais now recalibrating his foreign-policy machinery and focusing on theAsia-Pacific region.
The government in Beijing has used some ofthe past decade’s worth of breathing-space shrewdly, launching a charmoffensive in South-East Asia, building hospitals, roads and schools, andbecoming the largest trading partner of many of the region’s countrieswhile America whistled a lonesome, security-obsessed tune. But in thepast couple of years, occasional rumbles of thunder out ofChina—especially on the subject of the South China Sea—have sentSouth-East Asian governments rushing for the shelter of the Americanumbrella.
The Obama administration had signalled clearly that itspolicy shift was coming, but there was still plenty of fulminatingabout “containment” from China’s increasingly nationalistic newsoutlets. The loudmouths of Beijing can easily match their bloviatingcounterparts at America’s Fox News huff for puff these days, and notjust towards the United States. The infamously belligerent Global Timeswarned Australia that it “could not play China for a fool” in agreeingto allow American troops to be based in its northern city of Darwin. Onething is certain, said the newspaper on November 16th: “if Australiauses its military bases to help the U.S. harm Chinese interests, thenAustralia itself will be caught in the crossfire.”
But China’srelatively avuncular premier Wen Jiabao has snorkelled this reef before.As he arrived for the regional forum known as the East Asian Summit inBali, he took a hard line, saying that “outside forces should not, underany pretext” interfere in a regional dispute over the control of theSouth China Sea. Mr. Wen may have listened warily as Mr Obama announcedfurther rapprochement with Myanmar, including plans for a visit inDecember by his secretary of state, Hillary Clinton. Myanmar has, overthe past 20 years, developed an extremely close relationship with China,and yet here again was a case of America reasserting its influence inthe region. Indeed, it could be taken as confirmation that South-EastAsia is a potential crucible for future confrontations between Americaand China.
And yet Mr. Wen managed, almost, to charm as well. AnAmerican official briefing reporters as Mr Obama flew home aboard AirForce One said that on November 19th, during a two-hour session, 16 ofthe 18 leaders present raised concerns about maritime security directlywith Mr. Wen. The official Chinese news agency reported Mr. Wen assaying he did not want to discuss the issue at the summit, but addingthat it would be “impolite” not to answer a neighbour’s questions. So hedefended China’s stance on the South China Sea.
Though the sameAmerican official told the New York Times that Mr. Wen’s response was“grouchy” at times, he acknowledged that at least the Chinese premierwas “not on a tirade”, nor did he use many of the more assertiveformulas that are frequently heard from the Chinese. In the American’sjudgment the overall discussion was “constructive, and not acrimonious”.China’s leaders clearly feel that, for now at least, discretion is thebetter part of grouchiness.
Chinese academics too—anincreasingly independent bunch, who have become comfortable discussinginternational issues candidly with foreign reporters—are at pains toplay down whatever threat China might feel posed by America’s latestmoves.
“Many of us believe that what America is doing issomewhere between engagement and hedging, but not containment,” says JinCanrong of Renmin University in Beijing. Mr. Jin says that China’scomportment with America is much more mature than it used to be andnotes that the two sides enjoy much better channels of communicationthan they had.
“Chinese belligerence on the South China Sea ismainly for domestic reasons,” agrees Pang Zhongying, also of RenminUniversity—a bold statement considering how much the Chinesebelligerence is shaking up the Asia-Pacific. Mr Pang admits that“domestic pressures could lead to a misjudgement by Chinese leaders.”China is no democracy, but its leaders still have powerful domesticconstituencies in the media and the army, as well as among the generalpublic, and must be careful not to come across as weak. At the same timethey have plenty of work ahead if they are to convince their neighboursand America that their rise can continue to be peaceful.
Mr.Jin says he can understand why people might be nervous about China’srise. But he insists that instances like the one in March 2010, whenChinese officials sparked concern in Washington by telling seniorAmerican officials that the South China Sea was part of China’s “coreinterests” (on a par with Taiwan), are simply part of a process by whichChina is trying to settle on its own foreign policy. “We are in themiddle of an internal debate,” says Mr Jin, “and the result has not beendecided.” Looking at the rapid growth of China’s military forces andthe country’s increased forcefulness in the world arena generally,America might find it hard to believe that the debate remains undecided.Meanwhile, Mr. Wen and his colleagues will continue to try balancingtough talk with engagement, a challenge not unlike the one facing MrObama. With an American presidential election due in November 2012, and aleadership transition in China at about the same time, these will provetricky waters to navigate for both sides in the year to come.
Ithas always been more difficult for the rising power to persuade theincumbent power that its intentions are benign. On November 19th theChina’s official news agency, Xinhua, published a commentary arguingthat if the United States sticks to its cold-war mentality and continuesto engage with Asian nations in a self-assertive way, “it is doomed toincur repulsion in the region”. Xinhua’s assessment, it so happens,might be even more aptly applied to China.
页:
[1]