考研阅读精选：印度央行加息50基点
『印度央行宣布加息50基点，紧缩幅度超预期。』India's central bank: Fifty sense
印度央行加息50基点
Jul 26, 2011 | From The Economist
SITTING in the office of an Indian boss when the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raises interest rates with an unexpectedly aggressive jerk, things get a little tense. The iPhone on my host’s desk starts going berserk with incoming messages. The first few are politely ignored, but at last the phone’s owner excuses himself and reads closely. Looking ever so slightly queasy, he eventually explains, “they raised by fifty”. Asked if this means that private-sector investment in India, already weak, will take a lurch down, he shrugs: “Of course.”
The RBI was widely expected to boost its main interest rate on July 26th, but by only 25 basis points, not 50. Some optimists even thought that after ten hikes since the start of 2010, a final further quarter-point rise would mark the end of the tightening cycle. Yet there is a good case for tougher action. Inflation is still hovering about 10%, while real interest rates are negative. Although it was initially driven by food, the rise in prices is now broad, and, as the RBI called it in today’s statement, “stubborn”. The central bank lifted its estimate for wholesale price inflation for the year ending March 2012 from 6% to 7%. Having been complacent it is trying to get on the front foot.
That scares a lot of businessmen. Already industrial production figures have been weak and there is a lot of talk about capital investment being cut as higher borrowing costs feed through. Debt-funded projects, particularly those in the infrastructure and property sectors, could become vulnerable. Some worry that this may in turn put upwards pressure on bam�ky"http://kaoyan.koolearn.com/zhuanshuo/mt/" target="_blank">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"http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2011/07/indias-central-bank">http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2011/07/indias-central-bank
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